Bingo
So then the question is - how long can this continue before something snaps
So then the question is - how long can this continue before something snaps
This, in itself, doesn't mean anything profound. There's nothing to "snap" if the expectation of stable, modest inflation is baked into the markets. Fiat currencies usually implode only when something else undermines the confidence in the issuing government.
In other words, we have two different inflations happening at once, leading to people who happened to own the right assets getting richer and everyone else getting poorer. I don't think that's what an efficient market would do, which implies that efficiency will kick in at some point and BOOM
Have a look at the CPI-adjusted gold chart, and think back to how awful things were (or weren't) in 2011.
CPI is just an index of consumer prices. It's like saying that we have two stock markets because Nvidia is going up faster than Costco.
> People who happened to own the right assets getting richer and everyone else getting poorer
It's not a zero-sum game. Almost everyone is more wealthy than their peers 30-40 years ago.
Wealth disparities widen, but the reasons for this are complex and go beyond inflation. And frankly, many of them are self-inflicted. Every single housing development in my neighborhood is thoroughly protested by everyone. And most of what my city officials do is inventing new rules and regulations. They're not working for big corporations or the federal government.
> I don't think that's what an efficient market would do
Sounds like you spotted an arbitrage opportunity?
A dollar in 2025 is not worth -7 (i.e. eight times one less than one) dollars from 1970; it is worth ⅛th of a dollar from 1970.
Yes, I know what you mean. But ‘×’ is multiplication, not division — and phrases like ‘¼ less than’ and ‘3 less than’ have clear meanings inconsistent with using ‘8× less than’ to mean ‘⅛th.’