The wave 2020 in Europe was often smaller than 2018. And the data was perfectly seasonal. If you know people working in nursing homes and hospitals, you can ask them what happened later in 2021...
I heard a lot of stories - from first hand... They parked old ladies in the cold in front of open windows for fresh air - until they were blue... They vaccinated old people right into an ongoing wave and of course they had more problems caused from a wrongly trained vulnerable immune system - sane doctors don't vaccinate into an ongoing wave. What was going on in hospitals and nursing homes was a crime for money. Just ask the people that were there. A combat medic I know that now works in a hospital called 2021 a crime.
And still - solid Epidemiological data - wherever you could find it - was still perfectly seasonal. You could see some perfect mathematical curves. Just very high because they actively killed people. Even pupils in school spent all day in front of open windows in the cold... To remain healthy... How stupid is that...
Not all places are equal, but I've taken a look at German all cause mortality. 2020 was not special. In 2021 it started rising synchronous with vaccinations.