We'll be inference token constrained indefinitely: i.e. inference tokens supply will never exceed demand, it's just that the $/token may not be able to pay back the capital investment.
We'll be inference token constrained indefinitely: i.e. inference tokens supply will never exceed demand, it's just that the $/token may not be able to pay back the capital investment.
the loss is private, so that's OK.
A similar thing happened to the internet bandwidth capacity when the dot-com bust happened - overinvestment in fibre everywhere (came to be called dark fibre iirc), which became superbly useful once the recovery started, despite those building these capacity not making much money. They ate the losses, so that the benefit can flow out.
The only time this is not OK is when the overinvestment comes from gov't sources, and is ultimately a taxpayer funded grift.
However, the cost-benefit analysis on governmental projects typically includes non-monetary or indirect benefits.
The capital overhang of having more fiber than needed is so small compared to other costs I doubt the telecoms have really regretted any of the overprovisioning they've done, even when their models for future demand didn't pan out.
Fiber will remain a valuable asset until/unless some moron snaps it with a backhoe. And it costs almost nothing to operate.
Your data center full of H100s will wear out in 5 years. Any that don’t are still going to require substantial costs to run/may not be cost-competitive with whatever new higher performance card Nvidia releases next year.
There is a surprising amount of real long-term infrastructure being built beyond the quickly obsolete chips.