Those who understand exponentials should also try to understand stock and flow.
> The ultraviolet catastrophe, also called the Rayleigh–Jeans catastrophe, was the prediction of late 19th century and early 20th century classical physics that an ideal black body at thermal equilibrium would emit an unbounded quantity of energy as wavelength decreased into the ultraviolet range.
[...]
> The phrase refers to the fact that the empirically derived Rayleigh–Jeans law, which accurately predicted experimental results at large wavelengths, failed to do so for short wavelengths.
What is this limit on AI? It is technology, energy, something. All these things can be over-come, to keep the exponential going.
And of course, systems also break at the exponential. Maybe AI is stopped by the world economy collapsing. AI advancement would be stopped, but that is cold comfort to the humans.
Gulf money, for one. DoD budget would be another.
Booms are economic phenomena, not technological phenomena. When looking for a limiting factor of a boom, think about the money taps.
That's kind of begging the question. Obviously if all the limitations on AI can be overcome growth would be exponential. Even the biggest ai skeptic would agree. The question is, will it?
Data. Think of our LLMs like bacteria in a Petri dish. When first introduced, they achieve exponential growth by rapidly consuming the dish's growth medium. Once the medium is consumed, growth slows and then stops.
The corpus of information on the Internet, produced over several decades, is the LLM's growth medium. And we're not producing new growth medium at an exponential rate.
If you think COVID isn't still around: https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID19-national-data.html
* one might call this strategy forced vaccination with a known dangerous live vaccine strain lol
To the scientists, it was intuitively obvious that the curve could not surpass 100% of the population. An exponential curve with no turning point is almost always seen as a sure sign that something is wrong with your model. But we didn't have a clue as to the actual limit, and any putative limit below 100% would need a justification, which we didn't have, or some dramatic change to the fundamental conditions, which we couldn't guess.
The typical practice is to watch the curve for any sign of a departure from exponential behavior, and then say: "I told you so." ;-)
The first change may have been social isolation. In fact that was pretty much the only arrow in our quivers. The second change was the vaccine, which changed both the infection rate and the mortality rate, dramatically.
Did that look like normal seasonal deaths? It's even more stark if you look specifically at the harder hit areas.
The wave 2020 in Europe was often smaller than 2018. And the data was perfectly seasonal. If you know people working in nursing homes and hospitals, you can ask them what happened later in 2021...
I heard a lot of stories - from first hand... They parked old ladies in the cold in front of open windows for fresh air - until they were blue... They vaccinated old people right into an ongoing wave and of course they had more problems caused from a wrongly trained vulnerable immune system - sane doctors don't vaccinate into an ongoing wave. What was going on in hospitals and nursing homes was a crime for money. Just ask the people that were there. A combat medic I know that now works in a hospital called 2021 a crime.
And still - solid Epidemiological data - wherever you could find it - was still perfectly seasonal. You could see some perfect mathematical curves. Just very high because they actively killed people. Even pupils in school spent all day in front of open windows in the cold... To remain healthy... How stupid is that...
Not all places are equal, but I've taken a look at German all cause mortality. 2020 was not special. In 2021 it started rising synchronous with vaccinations.
Do you see that the all-cause mortality rate is 50-100% higher than prior years? I'm not going to try to suss it out in German but the same pattern holds in the UK: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/....
Similarly, to say "deaths increased when vaccines happened" is the most clear illustration. Why did the vaccines exist? Could that be related to the mortality increase? You can see charts here for Switzerland, US, UK: https://science.feedback.org/review/misleading-instagram-pos...
If you can get your hands on some good data you'll find perfect mathematical seasonal functions. This is a serious criterion to exclude any measures from having any influence on the curve. It was just the seasonal thing happening. The data proves that measures were all useless - you could have worn any fancy hat for government measures instead. There are no trend changes in seasonal data you can corrolate to measures. The only trend changes you can find are in the reporting data. There's a decrease in reporting delay before a measure and there's a lot of reporting delay after the measure. Accidentally or intentionally reporting delay tried to make government measure look good.
For vaccines I know 3 cases where people died and 2 who have serious health problems after vaccines. There is a reason, why there's no good official data on vaccine efficency - and why all placebo groups were killed as soon as possible.
Why did vaccines exists? The answer is simpler: Because of Money!