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The VSCodeUserSetup file from https://code.visualstudio.com/download is in the 90MB range.

Perhaps this file is just the installer and the actual system files are much larger? Or maybe your 400MB figure comes from a bloated install? Just speculating here.

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Presumably the setup file is compressed, and the installation on disk isn't

A compressed download is my guess. The easiest way to predict if an app is using Electron is to see if the download is around 90 to 130 MB. Especially if that size feels unreasonable for the functionality that it offers.

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