The math and the code is all there. I’d love to have a discussion about what the real value is. Further, why hasn’t the Tor Project provided this calculation? Why hasn’t anyone? I think it’s necessary.
The formula is wrong and it all falls apart.
BUT the author asked a different (but valid) question: assuming the adversary controls x out of N existing nodes, what is the success rate? I am unclear: is the assertion that everyone’s relay is honest today? From a privacy standpoint, that’s not a great assumption.
Posting some words on a URL does not make them factually accurate.