> If AI stays on the trajectory that we think it will, then amazing things will be possible. Maybe with 10 gigawatts of compute, AI can figure out how to cure cancer.

At least the statement starts with a conditional, even if it is a silly one.

If you know your growth curve is ultimately going to be a sigmoid, fitting a model with only data points before the inflection point is underdetermined.

> If AI stays on the trajectory that we think it will

Is a statement that no amount of prior evidence can support.