2. The thinking laid out in the blog post you linked to is how we went about it. You can do the math with your own parameters by computing the probability of a second node failure within the time it takes to recover from a first node failure. These are independent failures, being on physically separate hardware in physically separate availability zones. It's only when they happen together that problems arise. The core is this: P(second node failure within MTTR for first node failure) = 1 - e^( -(MTTR node failure) / (MTBF for a node) )
3. This one's harder to test yourself. You can do all sorts of tests yourself (<https://rcrowley.org/2019/disasterpiece-theater.html>) and via AWS FIS but you kind of have to trust the cloud provider (or read their SOC 2 report) to learn how availability zones really work and really fail.