Google+: 400 Million Registrations, 100 Million Monthly Active Users
thenextweb.com
thenextweb.com
To begin with, as experienced by others here, my Google+ is extremely quiet. There may be at most a few people who occasionally post to it, and recently I've seen many switch to Twitter.
Secondly, although not a perfect proxy, Google Trends shows an exponentially decaying trend that is hardly in line with their reported exponential growth:
http://www.google.com/trends/?q=google%2B,+google+plus&c...
Here's a zoomed-in graph in the last 12 months clearly showing the decaying tail:
http://www.google.com/trends/?q=google%2B,+google+plus&c...
Let's compare for example with Twitter (~140-200M actives) in the last 12 months:
http://www.google.com/trends/?q=google+plus,+google%2B,+twit...
Regardless of how you rationalize people searching for "twitter" vs. "google plus" as a proxy for active users, the decaying trend is clear. And it's hard to think of why the query "google plus" or "google+" would be 50-70 times less popular than "twitter" other than low the popularity of the service.
Of course none of this is hard proof, and it's possible that my circles are just not representative of the internet as a whole and that Google Trends is a fantastically erroneous proxy for popularity, but personally I believe they're using an unrealistically optimistic metric for actives.
"To begin with, as experienced by others here, my Google+ is extremely quiet."
There is an interesting thing about G+ which hasn't "seeped in" to a lot of users, is that 'share with my circles' doesn't share with people who are following you but you don't have in your circles. To hit those people you need to share to 'public' (and yes there should be a share to followers which is less broad than public but that is only my opinion)
Consequently you don't get as much 'fire hose' effect as you do on say twitter. And the APIs that post to Google+ are still not available as far as I can tell (pls correct if this is mistaken!) and a lot of my Facebook feed is not real news so much as auto-generated stuff from other apps. My point being that 'seeing it as quiet' isn't a good measure of anything.
Then looking at searches is another poor proxy because once you've figured out what G+ is, why search for it? And Google includes your G+ stuff in your search results (much to the dismay of many).
I suspect the better proxy is going to find referrals from links in a G+ post. How many links are sharing, how many links are being followed, how much traffic does it drive. That will be a better measure of its success I expect.
Same applies to Twitter, so the comparison is fair.
Yet their Google Trends curves are going in opposite directions...
Basically an app can add stuff to a private queue, and then a user can go in and then approve to share them.
Edit: Taking a closer look at the trends link you provided, the bulk of the traffic relating to Google Plus occurred in the first 3 months of it being announced, after which traffic has remained fairly constant. This suggests that the initial peak was an initial surge of people searching for "Google Plus" to try and find out more about it.
It's easy to try and gleam meaning from the search data, but you need to be careful in the interpretation. On the other hand, it's curious to note that "Facebook" has maintained an order of magnitude higher search traffic than "Google Plus", despite Facebook being globally well-known.
For apples to apples, this is the graph you should be looking at: http://www.google.com/trends/?q=Google,+Facebook,+Twitter...
Also add the fact that many go to FB by searching it on Google, which pollutes those results.
But isn't that an advertised feature of google+? That you could 'friend' people, but then toss them in a [siberia] circle to keep their noise from cluttering up your feed? And similarly keep posts about your drinking vacation from being 'blabbed' to all your professional contacts?
It seems entirely possible that swaths of the social graph may have cut themselves off by pruning their circles down to the point that they were sharing to people who weren't listening to them and listening to people who weren't sharing with them.
Consider: When that co-worker from three jobs ago asks "does anyone ever use google+?" Would you really say "dude, I'm on there all the time. I've just got you in [siberia]"? It seems to me that most people would downplay whether/how often they use it.
That said, I'm on the US East Coast, so I could easily have a biased viewpoint. Perhaps all the Google+ users are elsewhere in the world? Or perhaps the little Google+ notification bar at the top-right of the default Gmail interface counts as an impression for the purposes of this study?
I'm a Google+ MAU, since I'm usually signed into my Google account, and occasionally read blog posts on Google+. I'm a Google+ MAU in the same way as I'm a MAU of plenty of other blog hosting sites. I don't use it as a social network.
I think more detailed engagement numbers would tell the true story.
Based on what Vic said I don't think you would be counted. They don't explicitly say what does and does not count but it sounds like you would only count when visit G+ and scroll through photos. I personally would count sharing from Reader but but instant upload from the mobile app is passive activity and should not be counted.
But other people prefer to stay with those social services where the most of their friends are. So happened it is not G+ but Facebook and other (e.g. VKontakte).
Just noticed.
I only visit Google+ because my admin didn't bother to block it, but nobody in my social circle uses it, so I only have it to follow some funny pictures, lifehacker and stuff (kind of a RSS feed).
Reminds me of Hotmail, which I check once a month or so, much like many people I know which still has an account, but I'm sure Microsoft counts me as "active", compared to Gmail which I check a zillion times a day.
The new killer feature for me is the events. This weekend it was my friend's wedding and I made an event and invited my friends that were on G+, during the event your phone can optionally go into "party mode" which shares photos and video taken to the event page when the event ends your phone automatically stops sharing. Between the 8 or so that "attended" the event we gathered over 200 photos and a few videos, it was great. Showing people that feature convinced a few more to give G+ another, or first, shot.
I thought they'd learned a lesson about this kind of behavior from Buzz.
Edit: just tried it. After creating a gmail accoun in mobile firefox, I had to click through an interstitial ad page punting the Plus app, and then find the hidden Cancel button on a G+ sign up form that was prefilled, and then I got to my new mailbox.
So, it doesn't ever publish private data without consent, but the UX is definitively evil in pretending to hold your mail hostage.
As a "status update" social network (in the FB, Twitter, MySpace), I'm not sure that Google+ is going to change the world, but as a set of communication tools, it might end up being what Wave always wanted to be.
I switched to Android, and so did everybody in my office, yet nobody feels compelled to use Google Plus.
Now there's nothing wrong with that. There's not even anything wrong with defaulting G+ to "on".
What's "wrong" is to go around claiming G+ is some kind of amazing success story that's growing like wildfire. It'd be like Apple adding a new Ping checkbox to Apple id profiles that defaults to on and then claiming Ping has 400 million new users and is a runaway success.
Not claimed.
The claim is that a Google Account is necessary for Google Play and when you sign up for a Google Account the default for G+ is on. And again I don't see anything wrong with that. But the obvious result is that this inflates the G+ numbers with people who aren't the least interested in G+ as a service. Again if Apple did this with Ping they'd be a laughingstock.
So yes, I think you're right, most of those new accounts won't be using Google+ . Thanks for the clarification.
a) social network b) New target for adsense c) annoying sh-it that is everywhere.