https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/dependency-and-dep...
https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/institutional/insight...
Old and still accessible beats inaccessible. BTW the source of the USAs demographic resistance to aging has been the sheer fact it was that immigration melting pot of bringing in young talent to offset its local aging population. A few decades of this path and the US can be just as dismissed as Japan who have taken this path decades in advance.
India’s total fertility rate is already 1.9, below 2.1 replacement rate. Its demographic dividend (and any potential capital investment opportunities) is already on borrowed time. So capital would rotate and reallocate there, while there is still time, regardless.
https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/dont-panic-over-falli...
Per exhibit 5 of your first link: The US still to be as bad as Europe and Japan you disparage as "old" and that is based on 2024 analyses. A few more years of these events if sustained will drop that further.
And per Exhibit 1 of that same link, sure India will be at 1.9. And the US was at 1.6 two years ago, which is worse.
https://www.science.org/content/article/population-tipping-p...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/15/5-facts-a...
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-worlds-birthrate-may-already-...
Most of the world will be below fertility replacement rate by 2030. This is important, because the faster fertility rates decline, the faster the light cone of capital returns into the future shrinks (people = profits = returns).
So, to tie this all together: for the reasons I’ve laid out in this subthread (with citations), I’m not too concerned about the need to cater to the demands of capital. It needs returns more than humans need it considering population growth is almost over, and it will continue to slowly exhaust investment opportunities as the global demographics transition continues.