Any ways, a lot of studies have shown your body has a variety of methods that attempt to counteract excess calories burned, like reduction in non-exercise activity thermogenesis.
My disagreement is that I think exercise should not primarily be about calories - it should be about fitness. And almost all of the fitness gains from exercise persist even if you replace the calories with a donut.
Exercising for 30min and then relacing those spent calories with donuts is FAR better than not exercising and forgoing those extra calories.
Of course this assumes that in addition to the single donut the rest of your diet is decent - if you're eating shit all day then you are asking for an injury
the aerobics build up muscle that will always be burning calories by merely existing. a donut here and there won't make a negligible difference, as long as the weekly aerobic activity level is maintained.
Tell that to all the lean 150 pound / 68kg runners stuffing their faces with high calorie foods all the time.
Do you think they want to lose weight?
You can't outrun a bad diet is a common saying around my parts.
As for muscle, a pound only burns 11 calories/day. You'd have to gain 20 lbs of muscle, basically become a bodybuilder, just to offset a KitKat. The math is pretty depressing.
Gaining 20lbs of muscle, which would be quite a visual change, would only burn about an extra candy bar.
That extra food in fact does include cakes and treats.