I’ve been thinking about the impact of LLMs on software engineering through a Marxist lens. Marx described one of capitalism’s recurring problems as the crisis of overproduction: the economy becomes capable of producing far more goods than the market can absorb profitably. This contradiction (between productive capacity and limited demand) leads to bankruptcies, layoffs, and recessions until value and capital are destroyed, paving the way for the next cycle.

Something similar might be happening in software. LLMs allow us to produce more software, faster and cheaper, than companies can realistically absorb. In the short term this looks amazing: there’s always some backlog of features and technical debt to address, so everyone’s happy.

But a year or two from now, we may reach saturation. Businesses won’t be able to use or even need all the software we’re capable of producing. At that point, wages may fall, unemployment among engineers may grow, and some companies could collapse.

In other words, the bottleneck in software production is shifting from labor capacity to market absorption. And that could trigger something very much like an overproduction crisis. Only this time, not for physical goods, but for code.