We're starting to see adoption for O(days) now but I imagine that the lifetime will continue to decrease to some minimum O(hours) in the years to come.
IETF will be gradually reducing maximum length of public certs to 47 days. I expect this will help some of the issue since expired certs can be removed from the list.
Compared to what? 12MB JavaScript bundles and autoplay videos? Do CDNs still exist?
There's a finite number of CAs and browsers can be expected to perform caching. Delta CRLs also exist and the CAs can decline to include expired leaf certs.
This sounds like a made up problem that was solved 25 years ago.
Not really sure how big of a problem a list could be?
And if I cache the information that it is revoked, how do I know that it's allowed again?
I could check, let's say one time per day even if I don't access that site.
In any case I'm still leaking which domains I browse and I keep trusting cached certificates until the next check.
On the other side, with short lived certificates I would be trusting a certificate for a longer time, until it expires.
Downloading a list of all certificates and their status from every CAs is probably unfeasible.
It seems that we can't escape a tradeoff between privacy and security.
How do you know it is allowed again? Because it responds with a new certificate, that isn't revoked...
You are not leaking anything. You are just downloading a list of revoked domains. Regardless of whether you are visiting them or not.