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Comment by rs186 | Hacker News Reader

So the facts we know are that 1) Samsung market share rising from 23% to 31% and 2) they recently released new foldable phones. But do we know that's the actual primary reason for the increase? I couldn't tell that from the article. The article mentions engagement of specific social media posts, but that's as much as it, without any sales number/estimates from anyone.

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I heard a stat the other day in the Dithering podcast, I’m not sure from where, that said that foldable phones are something like 1.7% of the market in the US.

If that’s close it’s not why Samsung‘s market share increased so much. That was for ALL foldable phones of all brands. That wouldn’t make statistical sense.

There are people who like foldable phones. Apple does not have them. And Samsung‘s market share went up.

Thats all we know. The rest is a catchy headline.

I doubt they are making all of the impact, but are we comparing market share of newly sold phones to market share of all in-use phones, or the podcast was talking about newly sold?

I’m not sure it qualified. I’d assume in-use. But I doubt phones that get close to $2000 are popular enough to be a large percentage of new phones either.

Better than 1.7%? Sure. Better than 5% I doubt it.

Yeah I doubt the foldables are driving it.

I also bet the numbers will change now that the 17 is out. These things are cyclical, and whomever releases first in a year typically gets a small boost. Samsung releases phones twice a year, Jan/Feb and July typically, while Apple is once a year in the fall.

These numbers are also only for one quarter.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Android's market share increase in the US, and I say that as an iPhone user. Apple's marketshare, especially amongst young people in the US is not beneficial at all, it's effectively a monopoly, and with iMessage popularity here it causes a communications lock-in effect. But, I'm doubtful without seeing a full years worth of numbers or a more consistent increase.

Or maybe people are finally tired of Apple stagnating and are finally open to trying the other side.

A separate point they made on the same episode is that when Apple releases a foldable phone (rumored for next year) it might significantly increase the number of foldable sold for all brands.

It would give the idea of foldable phones a big visibility boost so more people would know they exist, thus perhaps more would buy them.

Think about how popular MP3 players were before the iPod, and how popular they were after even for non-Apple ones. It raised a lot of awareness.

It’s an interesting idea. Personally I have a hard time seeing a foldable phone being something I would be interested in. But I’m curious to see Apple’s take.

It'd definitely be interesting to see the affect on the foldable market if Apple releases one.

I'm still skeptical on that happening though. I don't think the screen tech is ready for an Apple quality device yet, and Apple is historically very into device separation - they try not to blur the lines between their products. iPad will never be a mac, macs will never have touch screens, I have a hard time seeing them making a phone that effectively becomes an iPad mini.

Foldable phones are selling like hot cakes outside the U.S. but I don't know about the U.S. market. Could be catching up.

   Here are some things to know about folding phones

   1. They're like expensive cars. Do not own one without a warranty
   2. As soon as the new model comes out, swap it in
   3. If you're into smaller phones, they're a good option
   4. They are not for the financially conscious. Those things are kind of a status symbol

> 3. If you're into smaller phones, they're a good option

Curious to hear more about this. I don't mind thickness so much. How small are they? If I can get a decent phone with a <= 5" screen, I'd be ecstatic.

What I meant was using the outer screen while folded (e.g. Z Flip models)

Oh that does look interesting! https://phonesized.com/compare/#2715,1863

May have to get my hands on one some time and see how it feels.

Anecdotal, but I'm seeing a lot of folding phones in public.

I look at the prices and wonder how some of the people I see with them can afford them. But using them is probably many people's favorite hobby at this point?

Most of it is your tax dollars. I have two friends who aren't officially with the mother of their kids in any way on paper so that they get as many benefits for single mothers as possible.

Probably carrier financing. Most carriers will offer 3 year monthly payments for phones, along with other promos that come along with bill credits w/ trade-in, etc.

I doubt many are dropping $2,000 cash on the new phones but are more likely getting it financed as part of their phone plan.

I see this in media all the time. Make factual statements and imply they are connected, but with zero data if they actually are. Or claim "People are doing X" without any data if a statistically relevant number are actually doing X or just the 2 people they found as an example

Just anecdotally I spent some time with older members of my family a couple months back in a hospice situation, and folding phones were very popular with everyone at the facility. If your vision isn't the best and maybe your hands aren't so steady, having double the real estate makes a big difference.

That's interesting I would think someone in a hospice (old?) would mean barely able to use technology, something basic with big buttons like a jitter bug.

Funny I saw someone who's phone was so zoomed in the letters were massive in the messaging app, I thought they mistakenly did that but it was on purpose.

It was an assisted living facility with on site medical clinic and hospice care. So it was a wide variety of people.

And yeah, being able to make the letters huge is a big deal. Also being able to dictate texts or emails was also huge for a lot of the people there. Much more convenient for them.

We don't, but can extrapolate:

[1] Reviewer comparison: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45209164

[2] Specs: iPhone Air: 5.64mm, 165g vs. Samsung Edge: 5.8mm, 163g, 200MP camera, stereo, larger battery

https://www.facebook.com/theapplehubofficial/posts/galaxy-s2...

[3] Demand by young man: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44678489

You can see in the report that this article is based on that is a cyclical swing that happens every year based on their respective release cycles. Silly article.

https://www.canalys.com/newsroom/us-smartphone-market-q2-202...

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