Poland Has Invoked NATO's Article 4. What Comes Next? | Hacker News Reader

Poland Has Invoked NATO's Article 4. What Comes Next?

nytimes.com

Article 4 is practically a call to discussion.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm

All the saber rattling is worrying because it seems like people have forgotten this portion from UN Charter: “… save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind …”

https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text

That's a noble quote, but Russia is hell bent on becoming USSR again. Part of USSR used to be Baltic States which are now part of NATO and EU. Collision curse is set and war at least between Eastern Europe and rest of Russia is inevitable at this point.

And I am saying that as an Eastern European who is going to be drafted in case of such a war and almost certainly won't survive.

Russia is definitely the perpetrator here no question about it.

When I said the saber rattling I meant everything after and including the Georgia offense, not just Poland or Ukraine.

Let’s hope we don’t make the same mistakes of the previous generation just to learn the same lessons the hard way.

Whatever happens, I hope you do survive and get to see the better days that come after.

Whet comes next is a test of America’s position - or at least the current administration, which has been recklessly attacking critical allies like India and going soft on enemies like China. Secondarily it is a test of European unity and resolve, and maybe even a moment where they can become aggressive themselves instead of passively waiting.

https://archive.is/aIRrZ

The EU as a whole has a chance here to pursue bona fide Keynesianism.

Ramping up coordinated EU investment and production to arm Ukraine - to the level of their actual needs - would be a win-win for Democracy.

That's already happening: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-to-open-arms-factory...

Too few, too slow.

Ukraine’s military supply needs are under fulfilled.

Europe should mobilize its formidable industrial might to fully supply Ukraine, and, replace EU’s US-made military equipment, while we’re at it.

And also replace US-made military equipment, while we’re at it.

Tldr: Poland shot down Russian drones that entered polish airspace. Not the first time they've entered, but first time they've been shot down by Poland.

I wouldn't be surprised if it is deliberate by Russia.

Gray zone warfare in part does small little practically deniable actions, to create a new normal and establish small precedents that can be escalated into larger precedents. Slowly boil the lobster alive - create messaging that conflict in Poland is usual and nothing to wake up about.

The Netherlands also helped to shoot down some drones. A first it seems. Not only F35 fighters were launched, also at least two tanker airplanes were deployed to resupply the F35’s. Source: https://nos.nl/l/2581928

It's time for EU's words actually be of consequence: Europe let's Putin get away with far too much.

>Europe let's Putin get away with far too much.

Compared to who?

Compared to Biden-era US, the UK, Europe’s own Nordics's (relative scale) and the other frontline states, and Europe’s own capacity and stated goals, the EU has lagged in sanctions enforcement and loophole closing, energy decoupling, defense production, and timely delivery of critical weapons. The standard isn’t perfection—it’s matching peer action and Europe’s *core* full-scale capabilities relative to the stakes.

Among many others, look at the weapons hesitancy: Delays on long-range strike (e.g., Taurus) and limited Patriots/air defense transfers materially affected Ukraine’s ability to suppress glide-bomb and missile attacks.

Furthermore, the EU as a whole has a chance here to practice bona fide Keynesianism by ramping up production and arming Ukraine to their actual needs: it would be a win-win for Democracy.

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