Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%
wolfstreet.com
wolfstreet.com
>this quarter is the first since the start of the pandemic when America’s five biggest commercial-property firms—cbre, Colliers, Cushman & Wakefield, jll and Newmark—have lifted their earnings outlooks simultaneously. The share prices of the five are up by between 23% and 45% so far this year, and several have hit records.
Private Equity Keeps Inventing New Ways to Give Cash to Investors - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44985408 - August 2025
Private Equity's Latest Financial Alchemy Is Worrying Investors - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44891882 - August 2025
Obviously everyone who invested in MBS’s lost their shirt, but the general economy was hurt by the sheer level of exposure to MBS’s and the suddenness with which the realization of their corruption hit. I’m no expert, but I see no reason to believe a similar level of exposure and surprise is at play here.
“ Among the newly delinquent multifamily mortgages was the $62 million mortgage on Park West Village in Manhattan. The 4.65% fixed-rate mortgage on the 850-unit property, built in 1950 and renovated in 2014, was originated in August 2022. In August 2025, it became 30 days delinquent.”
62 million / 850 = 80k per unit. Seems easy to cover?
Yes.
> 62 million / 850 = 80k per unit. Seems easy to cover?
I imagine if the owner could sell at that price they would. The value of apartment buildings, broadly speaking, is based on net operating income divided by a market-specific capitalization rate. The math might just not work for new owners based on the prevailing interest rate and rent environment, or the NOI and cap rate might make the selling price untenable for the current owners.
My anecdote is that I’m a runner and I run through my downtown and I see a lot of vacancy and for lease signs and no one down there except homeless people. Doesn’t even feel like people work in the skyscrapers anymore.