https://www.resourcefulfinancepro.com/news/irs-section-174-c...
I'm not sure this particular phenomenon can be explained this way. For example, antiques auctions are doing quite well, with prices rising quite briskly year after year. There's still plenty of money chasing the kinds of long-term investments you can hold in your hand, put on a shelf, and show to your friends.
Jewelry sales are doing fine too.
There are other reasons why going to a fancy gallery in London to buy some decor for your mansion just isn't as enticing as it used to be a decade or two decades ago.
I don't know what causes bubbles to pop, but I don't think it's directly related to US monetary policy. I suspect that the bubble just moved elsewhere.
While canvas, sculpture, and other media are far removed from jpegs, the scarcity of adjacent digital forms going away may have reduced the interest in the market for "shaped aesthetic things".
The attention, and thus money, has moved elsewhere.
This could be because of capital controls, financial stress or increasing sense of national pride - take your pick
- fewer people can afford a home, let alone multiple = less wall space for premium art
- it’s way easier and cheaper to launder money through cryptocurrency casinos than art auctions
Art was always a favorite way to launder money. This is a good point.
Sure art sales can be used to launder money, but that can't be the majority of sales. Doesn't laundering rely on being masked by a larger legitimate cash flow?
I think a much more significant portion of the art market is people speculating on prices and people collecting to look cool. Both of which are highly sensitive to changes in mood and sentiment as described in the section of the article talking about Beth Rudin DeWoody .
Only partially correct. The reason why so many Chinese invested into the West is because the Chinese Government has strict monetary policies in place.
We have all seen news of people becoming miljonairs, billionaire's and then they leave for another country. The issue is that this was happening a lot in China. Rich folks made their money in China and then took the money outside the country. The issue was that they converted that money into foreign assets, what drain the national currency reserve (mostly dollars).
Like 12+ years ago the government implemented strict rules, disallowing money to be transferred out of the country, if it exceeded a specific amount. Its been a long time and i do not remember the exact limit. But there is used to be a backdoor, that if you knew the right people, and it was a company investment or other investment that build up soft power of China in the West. And voila, money flowed out that way. Of course, not for normal citizens ;)
O, you are investing a million or 5 into some painting. Well, now that money got transferred out of the country but the value (as in the painting) is now in the US, EU, ... Its the same reason why we had a TON of movies being made with Chinese backers. It was all used as a way to launder money out of China.
That means, if the Chinese government confiscated your assets at home, you had value in other countries to be tapped. Its not coincidence that a lot of rich folks their families study in the west and live in the west but the husband/family head works in China. Its a way of protection. And the West where if you leave a country, there is no real check on you leaving, China is different.
A few years ago, with Covid, China was in constant lockdowns, areas sealed off. The big cities like Shanghai, entire area's felt like prisons the moment somebody tested positive. So a lot of people with money tried even harder to get out.
It was around that time, even more stricter laws got introduced regarding "foreign investments". The whole backdoor regarding "foreign investments" has been restricted and is under much more scrutiny if you want to bring money out of China.
Hong Kong used to be a exit door but that has also been under a lot more pressure.
Its not that Chinese have less confidence in the West but that the government has "advised" that investing at home is the "better choice" for you and your family.
That means, if you do not want to be investigated and jailed. A lot of rich celebrities have been publicly investigated and jailed for short times. Charges like tax evasion was a thing. Until they paid a nice big sum to the government (with some money sticking on the edges), and a very, VERY public apology about their bad behavior. What in turn keeps the rest in place. As in, sure, you can play around but do not get too big for your bridges and think about moving money out of the country.
Getting money out of China, unless you have some connections is a hard thing. The level of control is much larger then 2010, and has only gotten worse with time.
You think about setting up a company in the West? You better be sure its registered in China (forgot the branch) or you can enjoy jail time when found out. Its all about tracking where money goes and ensuring control.
Its the same reason you see a lot of Chinese companies that used to be in China, now having head seats in Singapore etc. People using that route to get assets out.
So no, its not just about the West becoming less interesting, and people being more patriotic, its literally about way more financial and people control, what in turn affects that massive money flow from China into outside assets.
Funny thing, you ever wonder why so many, just BAD movies have been coming out the last 15 years. Check the investments and the money trail.
Its because even if the movie loses money, what then gets reported as a lost value in China, part of the money is still transferred out sideways. O, we spend 20 million on X movie (but it looks like a 2 million budget movie). O, ... i wonder what happened to those other million. We earned only 1 million from the movie sales, so we "lost" 19 million. Reality is that a lot of that money simply flowed somewhere else. 101 money laundry ..
When wars are going on, most people in affected countries are thinking about heavier things than going to an art exhibit and boosting their collections.
2020 and 2021 was when the pandemic happened. Businesses started feeling the crunch all over the world from the lockdowns. Supply chains got bullwhipped. People weren’t exactly interested in going to buy artworks after their one-time UBI checks and PPP funds ran out. And other countries didn’t send those out at all.
Oh yeah, and AI has now sent a supply shock to the whole art industry. But we can’t say that on HN, there will always be someone popping out of the woodwork claiming AI is a non-factor and saying things were always like that.
My sincerest desire is that there’s a peaceful resolution to this conflict before they’re forced to realize it.
Russia is currently acting in this mode. There can be no "resolution", only a devastating military defeat of one of the sides.
Russia switched fully to war economy, on purpose, there is no easy way back even if they wanted. Their goal is to conquer as much Europe as possible, losing few millions of its sub-citizens from rural remote regions is not such a concern that we in the west think about. Nobody there cares. Their enemy is whole western world, doesn't matter how much trump licks putin's a*, not a zilch.
In fact, I strongly believe that almost nobody in the west fully understands how depraved and primitive russian thinking is, think about white heroin addicted trash or common slums folks, and spread it on the level of largest nation in the world and give them huge stockpiles of nuclear weapons. On top is good old mafia (and I don't mean Coppola's idealized version, I mean real murder-whole-family-in-acid-vat type), nothing more.
Now what good do you expect from that, now or in 10 years? Whatever you do, you are naive.
:s/russian/american/
can we not label whole nationalities as depraved, primitive heroin addicted trash!?!
Expansion is not uncontroversial either. The Roman Empire had periods of a non-expansionist policy, and the British Empire in the 19th century had a fairly popular Little Englander movement that opposed expansion of the empire.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conflict
> Definition #1: : Fight, battle, war
So, having proved my point, I’ll note that (1) this war could certainly end in compromise, and (2) even a devastating military defeat would be a resolution.
And I’ll appreciate not being called an invasion-sympathizer when I’m only pointing out that using the word “conflict” is not a political statement.
Of course things could become different if the current Russian leader dies, or is deposed.
Otherwise there will be no peace, just oppression and torture of the occupied population. And more war down the line, when Russia feels it can take another bite.
No one forces Russia to attack its neighbors.
As long as Russia insists on waging war against its sovereign neighbors, Russia is a threat to Europe.
According to your theoretical, Russia could attack and immediately invalidate Ukraine's ability to join NATO by re-triggering a conflict.
Come on is this stuff really that hard?
WW2 didn't have to happen, and the UK and France could have interviened sooner, before the Nazi war machine took over the Czechs, the Poles, etc.
ounce of prevention vs. a pound of cure
This is just wrong for Gaza; either you take the "conflict has been running continuously since 1948" approach, or you date the present intense fighting to October 2023.
> AI has now sent a supply shock to the whole art industry
Not to the "fine art" part of it, no. It's taken out the lower and middle tiers; people doing commissions for a few hundred dollars are squeezed out, and there's much more slop to sell to tourists, but any business which cares about uniqueness and provenance (sometimes more than the content of the art!) is not going to notice.
Collectibles are very tricky. You want to buy something that isn't a fad. Like a movie prop, you'd want to buy the 100% most legendary movie that is timeless, like something from Casablanca, that has been appreciated decade-after-decade as worthwhile and valuable across many generations and fads. I wouldn't buy an expensive sports or trading card. Something related to Western culture is much safer, like the Magna Carta, or a founding US-related historical document. It's very hard to predict what will remain valuable decades or centuries out, so if something is still valuable now after centuries, it is likely to remain valuable
A lot of collectors are trying to find something they can buy for cheap and then sell when it goes up in price by a lot. If you want that, you have to pick something that hasn't had its price hit an equilibrium yet. You need to take a risk on something new.
I agree that trying to make money from collectibles is not the best way to make money. But then if you aren't buying collectibles for money, your first comment doesn't follow; you should collect things you want to collect yourself, which means it shouldn't matter their ability to hold value.
If you are into something, buy all means buy it. I just mean if you are a dispassionate investor looking for a return it is a pretty poor area to invest in. But if you like something - art, pokemon, whatever - just do what you love
Speculators are just trying to buy low and sell high. Investing has overlap with speculating, but it's generally more long term.
I think this is important to understand when considering buying collectables. You have to know the different types of people you're bidding against, whether it's an out of print magic the gathering card or a painting.
No idea the price, but I would much prefer this to a Charizard pokemon card!
The Rembrandt House in Amsterdam sells new prints that are made with copies of the original plates. They do add a big sign on the paper, but they are genuine prints, and look very pretty indeed. But the original works are made by the master himself and once you get into etching you get to see very minor nuances in the print that you may grow to like.
One thing to look for is whether the paper is original, but even here people use old paper from his period, for instance by ripping the first empty page from an old book.
Another interesting thing is that Rembrandt often reworked his plates, so there are multiple "states" of his etchings. If you ever find a non-final state of some print, you can be fairly sure that he or a student of his printed it. Which adds to the value :)
There's a bigger culprit: NFTs. They sucked away a huge portion of art spending, with a promise of a fungible growth asset that you can just sell as needed. Art has always been considered a safe long-term investment (along with a means of conspicuous consumption), but it has always been non-liquid.
To be more specific, the main purpose of the "object" is to provide plausible-deniability for one half of an exchange where the other half can't be shown because it's illicit.
How would one measure "the art market" in a way that can be graphed?
> should have collapsed
Through what mechanism would it "collapse? Laundering tricks don't involve bidding wars or high volumes of items. Consider this scenario:
1. Alice wants to transfer $5m to Bob in exchange for something off the books.
2. Bob goes and buys anything he can find that seems to have a consistent ~50m price point. Since Bob's task doesn't require any specific item, he doesn't get into bidding wars to drive up prices.
3. Bob privately sells it to Alice, who deliberately pays a higher amount of $55m. No auction, no bidding wars.
4. Alice can either resell the item to unrelated people for probably ~$50m, or keep it around for a bit to provide either plausible-deniability or a future tool for an inbound cloaked transaction with someone else.
How would that kind of activity charge up "the art market" in a way that is easy to measure?
> when NFTs were booming
Most of that boom was other speculation. My point is that an NFT by cyber-Rembrandt is a lot more convenient than certificate a real Rembrandt held in a freeport as its ownership shifts.
The trick is getting something where the generally-accepted value is high enough that transactions can plausibly be hidden as noise in the signal.