Trump did (baselessly?) fire the BLS head, but it was because of revisions that looked convenient for the last administration.
Trump did (baselessly?) fire the BLS head, but it was because of revisions that looked convenient for the last administration.
US labor and economics statistics is famously most reliable in the world, going further back in time than any other statistics source. Its not only used by the government but by banks, companies, and international organisations to predict and analyze economic trends.
But surely this year when the numbers looked a bit bad, they made the numbers to intentionally look that way? Simply no. The administration firing the people collection statistics is the real concern. (and its not the first time the administration has removed historical statistics either)
(manual revisions are made in statistics to compensate for anomalies. Companies stocking up on product to escape tariffs created a false peak in GDP that does not correspond to real consumption for example. But that's how statistics work, and the US is the gold standard in proper statitics)
Yes, revisions are valid and happen. Yes, a look at historical revisions don't show any bias.
But where are you seeing that half made Trump look good?
For this year's numbers there are two possible stories that come to my mind:
1. The jobs are going ~constantly downhill and any new, revised number is going to be worse than previous
2. There is a conspiracy and initially the numbers are systematically inflated and/or afterwards deflated because reasons... that are completely incomprehensible to me. I don't even understand if this conspiracy theory should be pro or against trump.
Is it hard to imagine a world where things from 10 years ago aren't the same as today? Can you not see that politicians will do anything to win?
Biggest downward revision ever recorded this morning, by the way.
What does the last administration even have to do with this? Job growth plummeted under the current administration. I get that Trump blames Biden for everything because he always needs a scapegoat, but am shocked that anyone still gives that any weight given that Trump has very publicly and deliberately created the current economic trouble.
Trump fired a statistician because the numbers reported were politically inconvenient, not because they were incorrect.
"many businesses do not have their payroll data ready to report by the scheduled date that BLS initially releases the data."
"BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information."
"and occasionally the revised data produce a different picture altogether."
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numb...
"the revisions aren’t mistakes. They’re a deliberate, transparent part of a statistical process designed to balance two competing goals: providing timely economic information while ensuring the greatest possible accuracy."
https://govfacts.org/federal/labor/why-job-numbers-change-ho...