- high unemployment means the fed will do a rate cut, so markets go up

- low unemployment means the economy is booming, so markets go up

hmmm... the more I learn about the stock market, the more I believe in the limits of human understanding

The rate cut is already completely priced in. Also, almost every market crash has started with a rate cut. It's a sign of economic distress.

Rate cuts are priced in at about 100% for a 1/4 point. It might go up for a 1/2 point, but that may also signal fear which could have the opposite effect. I think it's hard to say at this point.

Won't the stock market go only up, if interest rates are cut?

(For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not saying this is either a good or bad thing)