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Entrenched technologies take a while to un-trench; there's a lead lag on that kind of thing.

It starts with the kids saying I hate Windows. Then the adults. Then finally the grandmas. Windows will be evaporating marketshare for decades, like a long-half life on an unstable isotope.

The thing about market share is that it looks like sigmoid function. It's way more difficult to climb from 1% to 2% than from 40% to 50%.

I agree that it is still too early to call it, but note how SteamOS still hasn't officially come out on laptops/desktops yet.