1. LLMs do not increase general developer productivity by 10x across the board for general purpose tasks selected at random.
2. LLMs dramatically increases productivity for a limited subset of tasks
3. LLMs can be automated to do busy work and although they may take longer in terms of clock time than a human, the work is effectively done in the background.
LLMs can get me up to speed on new APIs and libraries far faster than I can myself, a gigantic speedup. If I need to write a small bit of glue code in a language I do not know, LLMs not only save me time, but they make it so I don't have to learn something that I'll likely never use again.
Fixing up existing large code bases? Productivity is at best a wash.
Setting up a scaffolding for a new website? LLMs are amazing at it.
Writing mocks for classes? LLMs know the details of using mock libraries really well and can get it done far faster than I can, especially since writing complex mocks is something I do a couple times a year and completely forget how to do in-between the rare times I am doing it.
Navigating a new code base? LLMs are ~70% great at this. If you've ever opened up an over-engineered WTF project, just finding where HTTP routes are defined at can be a problem. "Yo, Claude, where are the route endpoints in this project defined at? Where do the dependency injected functions for auth live?"
Right tool, right job. Stop using a hammer on nails.