Tell HN: A data-driven look at a failed HN account

3 pointsattogram2 comments

I crunched the data to figure out why my old HN account was a failure:

Old Account:

  Day 0: Account Created in mid 2017 | 0 karma
  Day 0: Submission 1: Show HN - live - 2 points - 3 comments | 2 karma
  Day 0: Submission 2: Show HN - live - 2 points | 4 karma
  Day 0: Comment 1: replied to post on Submission 2 | 4 karma
  Day 11: Submission 3: Show HN - [flagged] - [dead] - 1 point - 1 comment | 3 karma
  Day 11: Submission 4: Show HN - live - 2 points - 1 comment | 5 karma
  Day 11: Comment 2: replied to post on Submission 3 | 4 karma
  Day 11: Comment 3: replied to post on Submission 4 | 3 karma
  Day 12: Submission 5: Show HN - [dead] - 1 point | 3 karma
  Day 13: Submission 6: Show HN - [dead] - 1 point | 3 karma
  Day 2584: Submission 7: Show HN - [dead] - 1 point | 3 karma
  Day 2942: Submission 8: Show HN - [dead] - 1 point | 3 karma

Notes:

- Day 11: the [flagged] submission basically killed the account

- Pattern of using HN as a marketing/pr outlet with minimal community engagement

- Turn on showdead in your user settings, it's a great help in analyzing failures

This new Account:

  Day 3019: Account Created | 1 karma
  Day 3019: Comment 1: on post | 2 karma
  Day 3019: Comment 2: on post | 3 karma
  Day 3019: Comment 3: on post | 4 karma
  Day 3020: Comment 4: on post | 5 karma
  Day 3020: Comment 5: on post | 6 karma
  Day 3021: Comment 6: on post | 7 karma
  Day 3021: Comment 7: on post | 8 karma
  Day 3022: Comment 8: on post | 9 karma
  Day 3022: Comment 9: on post | 10 karma
  Day 3023: Comment 10: on post | 12 karma
  Day 3023: Comment 11: on post | 14 karma
  Day 3024: Comment 12: on post | 16 karma
  Day 3024: Comment 13: on post | 18 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 14: on post | 20 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 15: on post | 22 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 16: on post | 24 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 17: on post | 26 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 18: on post | 28 karma
  Day 3025: Comment 19: on post | 30 karma
  Day 3025: Submission 1: This post | 30 karma

The fix wasn't a new account, but a new strategy: listen first.

View on HN

METRIC OLD ACCOUNT NEW ACCOUNT --- --- --- Submission Velocity 4/3 = 1.333/day 1/6 = 0.167/day Comment Velocity 3/2942 = 0.00102/day 19/6 = 3.167/day Karma Efficiency 3/11 = 27.27% 30/20 = 150.00% Submission Mortality 7/8 = 87.50% 0/1 = 0.00% Comment Mortality 0/3 = 0.00% 0/19 = 0.00% Active Lifespan 13 days 6 days Total Lifespan 2942 days 6 days Karma/Submission 3/8 = 0.375 30/1 = 30.000 Karma/Comment 3/3 = 1.000 30/19 = 1.579 Engagement Intensity 11/13 = 0.846/day 30/6 = 5.000/day Karma Gain Rate 3/2942 = 0.00102/day 29/6 = 4.833/day Comment/Submission Ratio 3/8 = 0.375 19/1 = 19.000 Active Days Ratio 13/2942 = 0.00442 6/6 = 1.00000 Karma Sustainability 3/11 = 27.27% 30/19 = 157.89% Content Survival Rate 4/19 = 21.05% 20/20 = 100.00% Upvoted Comments Ratio 3/3 = 100.00% 19/19 = 100.00% Karma Distribution (low) (medium) Reply-to-Comment Ratio 0/3 = 0.00% 2/19 = 10.53% Peak Engagement N/A 14:00-16:00 UTC Flag-to-Karma Correlation -0.92 (strong negative) 0.00 (no correlation) Topic Consistency 0.33 (low) 0.82 (high) User Retention 0.44% 100.00% Cross-Thread Engagement 1.00 (low) 3.40 (high)

Submission Velocity = total_submissions / account_age_days Comment Velocity = total_comments / account_age_days Karma Efficiency = (final_karma / sum_raw_points) x 100 Submission Mortality = (dead_submissions / total_submissions) x 100 Comment Mortality = (dead_comments / total_comments) x 100 Active Lifespan = last_activity_day - first_activity_day Total Lifespan = last_check_day - creation_day Karma/Submission = final_karma / total_submissions Karma/Comment = final_karma / total_comments Engagement Intensity = total_karma_gained / active_days Karma Gain Rate = (final_karma - start_karma) / total_days Comment/Submission Ratio = total_comments / total_submissions Active Days Ratio = active_days / total_days Karma Sustainability = final_karma / total_raw_points x 100 Content Survival Rate = living_content / total_content x 100 Upvoted Comments Ratio = upvoted_comments / total_comments x 100 Karma Distribution = variance(karma_per_comment) Reply-to-Comment Ratio = replied_comments / total_comments x 100 Peak Engagement = hours_with_most_activity Flag-to-Karma Correlation = correlation(flags -karma_change) Topic Consistency = topic_similarity_score across comments User Retention = active_days / total_days x 100 Cross-Thread Engagement = avg_comments_per_thread