Hurricane category 6 could be introduced under new storm severity scale
livescience.com
livescience.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_se...
It's easier to make the classification a better representation of danger than it is to convince people to ignore the rating and only listen to local authorities.
Lax building codes in hurricane prone areas shouldn't exist after Hurricane Andrew in 1992 [0].
And then there was the Trump sharpie incident. [1]
Wind speed is the best metric (that's not corruptible by humans yet) that describes how dangerous a storm is.
[0]: https://www.npr.org/2024/10/15/nx-s1-5151844/tougher-buildin...
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian%E2%80%93Alaba...
This new rating system uses the old system and 2 new rating categories
Wind (from old system, 1min sustained speeds)
Cat 1: 33–42 m/s (~74–95 mph)
Cat 2: 43–49 m/s (~96–110 mph)
Cat 3: 50–58 m/s (~111–129 mph)
Cat 4: 59–69 m/s (~130–156 mph)
Cat 5: >70 m/s (>157 mph)
Storm surge (peak surge height above tide)
Cat 1: 0.75–1.54 m
Cat 2: 1.55–2.34 m
Cat 3: 2.35–3.14 m
Cat 4: 3.15–3.99 m
Cat 5: >4.00 m
Accumulated rainfall (event total)
Cat 1: 100–262 mm
Cat 2: 263–425 mm
Cat 3: 426–588 mm
Cat 4: 589–749 mm
Cat 5: >750 mm(a) The final category can never be lower than the highest hazard-based category;
(b) The TCSS should adequately reflect the case of high potential risk of two or more hazards. We consider a hazard of high risk when its respect- ive category is classified as 3 or higher (equal to the definition for a Major Hurricane on the SSHWS). Whenever (at least) two high risk haz- ards have the same category value and the third hazard has a lower category value, the final category should increment the highest hazard- based category. This implies that a TC scoring a Category 3 on both wind and storm surge, and a Category 1 on rainfall, will be classified as a Category 4.
(c) To warn the general public for an event with multiple extreme hazards, a high-risk TC can be classified as a Category 6 when either 1. at least two of the hazard-based categories are of Cat- egory 5; or 2. two categories are of Category 4, and one of Category 5.
But about 30 years ago, Andrew swept across Florida like a giant roomba, and did a huge amount of damage. It was a cat 5. Wind did most of the damage.
Not sure how they would reconcile these two types of mega-storms.
In place that experience this kind of weather more often(some parts of the Caribbean), it would have been business as usual the next day and I speak from experience.
There’s been some nasty storms, up here. They just happen infrequently.
What made Sandy so bad, was timing. It hit at high tide, and mixed with another storm.
Also, geography. The Long Island Sound (the water between Long Island and Connecticut) can act as a “funnel,” that concentrates storm surges, if the wind is from the northeast, and there’s a number of waterways and estuaries, along the South Shore, that normally act as buffers, but actually turned into concentrators, with Sandy. Several seaside communities got all but wiped out, with boats being docked into the kid’s second-story bedroom.
Southmost Manhattan is mostly reclaimed land. That is naturally prone to flooding. It also has some of the most expensive real estate in the world, so any flooding is guaranteed to be pricey.
Because of the timing issue, I’m skeptical that anyone could predict how bad it got.
Up here, after Sandy, any house south of Montauk Highway, is basically uninsurable. So you have a lot of waterfront property, that people can't sell. The insurance companies basically enforce it.
My mother was big into managing stormwater runoff (in Maryland). It was one of her casus belli (She had more than one –She was pretty scrappy).
Real estate developers hated her.
Maybe something like free energy in thermodynamics?
Also of interest: hypercanes [1], my hurricane-adjacent Interesting Wikipedia Deep Dive, which (according to Wikipedia):
- require ocean temperatures of 120 °F (50 °C)
- have sustained winds of 500 mph (800 km/h)
- have barometric pressures in their centers sufficiently low enough to cause altitude sickness
- may persist for several weeks due to above low pressure
- may be as large as North America or as small as 15 mi (25 km) — Wikipedia has an unhelpful caption about the size of the "average hypercane" (!)
- extend into the upper stratosphere, unlike today's hurricanes (lower stratosphere)
- due to above height, may sufficiently degrade the ozone layer with water vapor to the point of causing (an additional) hazard to planetary life
Irma reached +180mph before magically dwindling to a 3 (or weak 4?) just before landfall. By then, we were already without power, so stats were unknown. I made a safety box out of a toolbox into which I stuffed my cat and provisions, as I wore an old motorcycle helmet and combat boots clutching a bugout bag and bottle of courage.
I really didn't expect to do well and had it hit as a super 5, I'd probably not be leaving this silly post.
But cat 6 is real. We'll see it soon.
Hurricane Dorian, in 2019, was almost a "Cat 6" kind of experience for Florida. It made landfall in the Bahamas with 185 mph winds and then just parked itself there, barely moving, for 24+ hours, maintaining Cat 5 strength the whole time. If it had done that on Florida's east coast, as it was once forecast to, the economic destruction would have been unbelievable.
Different extreme weather but fun book.
Another problem with this system is that some category 2 or even 1 hurricanes can cause incredible devastation, depending on where they hit. But people see category 1 and they assume it’ll be nothing.
I think the title of this article is misleading and clickbaity. :/
Evacuation strategies for a cat 5 that’s just storm surge is very different than one that is wind and rain. Either way you lose the city, but with the latter, moving to high ground won’t save you.
You could have “geological changes” above that; reroutes rivers, moves mountains, etc.
- A "Key messages" graphic with 2-4 bullet points about what is going on, what is predicted to happen, and specific dangers to look out for. The tone of the text is carefully adjusted for how life-threatening the situation is. This graphic also includes a copy of the two most important visualizations on the right. (Example: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?pr...)
- A peak storm surge graphic showing predicted coastal inundation and destructive wave action (Example: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?pr...)
- A cone to depict the range of predictions for where the hurricane could go, ideally without a confusing line drawn in the center prediction (Example: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?pr...) Arguably this could be replaced with a spaghetti model map, but these can be just as confusing for those unaware of how predictions are depicted.
- A map of the most likely arrival time for hurricane force winds (Example: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?pr...)
- After the main risks are over, a map of continued flash flood and river flooding risk (Example: https://www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/202...)
- A no-frills ad-free weather report livestreamed to social media, so you can gauge how much the pros at the very top level of hurricane meteorology are freaking out about it (Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFL-nbFs2Xs)
- A few other graphics and data dumps primarily intended for meteorologists, local officials, and nerds
With NOAA's cuts, the only way I think cat 6 will be add is Trump wants to be the one to create that level and scientists state it is not really needed :)