Would note that the data the New York Times cited are seasonally adjusted [1]. The assumptions of those adjustment models may not currently apply.

It’s going to be difficult to suss out a signal from employment data until October or November, by when we should have about half a year of post-tariff data [2] to compare with ‘24. (We may not know anything surely for a year.)

[1] https://www.nyc.gov/assets/omb/downloads/pdf/sa-methodology-...

[2] https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/trumps-tariff...