I'm ready to say "China is the greatest superpower ever and so much better than my US" so we can move on from this type of article.
> The tragedy isn’t that China is winning, it’s that the West stopped imagining better futures.
Or as a question: Why can't we do that stuff?
Because over the past decades the interests that used to focus on growing the pie have pivoted to scooping up more of the pie (usually by getting government, or government adjacent entity, to pull some string).
Imagine the year is 1950/60/70/80 and you are a lobbyist for a construction product manufacture. What do you tell your paid off political to vote for? Stuff that lowers cost, creates more development, etc, of course. Because for every mil spent industry wide you know your employer nets $10, or whatever.
In 2025 you'd wine and dine a bunch of IBC jerks and insurance jerks and maybe even government jerks to get them to phrase things so that the industry is "incentivized" to use your employer's class of products, to the detriment of literally every participant in your sector for whom a different class of product would have otherwise been superior in their situation.
This sort of pivot to zero sum behavior has permeated damn near every class of economic activity, only in the most cutting edge spots of cutting edge sectors and the lowest margin, lowest sophistication, lowest security/moat sectors do you see anyone lift a goddamn finger to grow the pie.
Until you have laws favouring one entity over another, it is not a free market.
Only works in a flawed democracy, in better democracies people vote out corrupt leaders that only listen to lobbyists.
I've also heard that in real communism everyone gets their needs met and anarchism would let the true human nature flourish and everyone would be happy. I'm sure one day we will habe a society of better people who will make all of these work.
So as a counterpoint, consider the former President of the Geographic Society of China arguing to that there was too much focus on impressing with speed and scale and too little big-picture thinking about door-to-door transport within cities, which would've benefited more from suburban light rail and buses https://www.pekingnology.com/p/china-massively-overbuilt-hig...
China simply has a population around 4x larger than America's, so even at a much lower level of development/standard of living it can still have a very big impact on the overall global economy.
China has a lot of problems, like a lot. But comparable QoL isn’t there. I’d say insane competition and work hours is probably the biggest problem for average person, from what I’ve heard from my friends, and browsing Chinese media.
There are also Europeans who feel uncomfortable with the US having 1.5* Europe's GDP with less than half the population.
It's an extant truth and it'll become even more blatant as many Western countries struggle to do basic stuff like build out infrastructure.
But GDP is not the only thing that matters. I personally (as European) care also about how the average people lives and in that matter I prefer the European style if that implies some difference in GDP.
Also, worth mentioning EU has a lot of countries that grew a lot because there were so far behind (the ex-communist ones) which means it was playing "catch-up". There are advantages to not having lately a war on your territory (USA)...
GDP is projection of economy strength. If economy is weak, country will lose on competitive markets, and your lifestyle will become worse in the future.
Europe has been ahead of US on quality of life scores for decades, and has had lower gdp numbers the entire time.
The man who invented GDP argued vigorously that it's a synthetic economic metric, and it shouldn't be used as a goal or measure of well-being, yet we insist on it because it's one of the few measures where the US is handily winning.
GDP, while imperfect, is at least rooted in a quantitative value.
You've got health measures like life expectancy, infant / maternal mortality, disability adjusted life years, BMI, cortesol, blood pressure, suicide rates, etc. Economic ones like labor market participation, un[der]employment, poverty rates, gini coefficients. Societal ones like crime rates, trust levels, civic participation, environmental metric, public transit accessibility, international test scores, human rights, marriage and actual vs wanted fertility rates. The list goes on. There are countless measures, just few that economists genuinely value.
- there is strong correlation between index and EU countries GDP per capita: countries with high GDP are at the top, and countries with low GDP are at the bottom
- US index is higher than combined EU index, some EU countries with high GDP top US
Not sure how its double counting.
And how would you weigh life expectancy vs suicide rates? Let's say we try to create an index. You think life expectancy should be weighted at 80% and suicide rates at 20%? Why? There's no rhyme or reason for that figure, it just sounds good. Well it gets more and more confounding as you add up all the other vectors. Labor market participation now thrown into the same broad index, despite all three values being completely orthogonal.
There is no objective way to reconcile that.
Indeed. But what matters is whether Y is diminishing, not what's easy for you to prove. The world is not obliged to make the important things easy to measure, and it generally doesn't.
> I prefer the European style if that implies some difference in GDP.
It's quaint to think that but compounding interest is a doozy. If your competitors are growing at 4% a year and you're growing at 1% a year, they will triple their economy over 30 years while your economy sees a meak 30% boost. At some point you'll find your economy an entire century behind in development. And you'll no longer even have power or influence over the decisions made at the grown ups table.
They show the US narrowly holding Taiwan at the cost of dozens of ship, hundreds of planes and the depletion of missile stockpiles that have lead times measured in months to years.
China dominates the shipbuilding industry[1] and can easily rebuild whatever ships they lose while the US will be dependent on South Korea and Japan to rebuild whatever they lose.
At the same time China is stockpiling commodities[2] and has come to dominate the solar and battery manufacturing industry[3] by building a tightly integrated and automated supply chain which will greatly reduce their dependency on imported hydrocarbons should war break out.
America can't even muster up enough artillery shells to fight a proxy war with Russia right now and is in complete and utter disarray politically.
You should be paying attention to these kinds of articles instead of dismissing them. The next few years are not going to be very kind to America.
[0] https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites...
[1] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-dominate-global-s...
[2] https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/23/w...
[3] https://apnews.com/article/china-climate-solar-wind-carbon-e...
US builds military ships themself. Also, this will be very asymmetrical war: missiles which can destroy ship costs XM vs XXXM for military ship cost.
Not recently...
https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites...
The key takeaway is that the United States does not have the stockpiles of munitions necessary to engage in a long-term conflict with China nor does it have the industrial capacity to scale up production in a timely fashion.
Additionally, American shipbuilding capacity has completely atrophied both from a decline of infrastructure and even worse a startling decline in blue-collar institutional knowledge. It has become so dire that the US Navy is looking to outsource ship production to South Korea.
It should be obvious at this point that China dominates in mass-production and they'll absolutely be able to out-produce the US in both ships and missiles in a long term conflict.
I think this is missleading conclusion, my reading of the link is that it says that in 4 week of active phase, US stockpile will deplete, it doesn't assess what damage China will receive, will it have enough ships/airplanes after US activated thousands of munitions, and will it rebuild them faster than US will restock missiles inventory (99% not).
> US Navy is looking to outsource ship production to South Korea.
could you provide citation?
I recommend that you take a look at this document[1] to get a better picture of the shortcomings of US munitions stockpiles and manufacturing capacity.
I'm not sure why you think that China, a nation renowned for their mass manufacturing capacity would be unable to rebuild equipment lost in a war over Taiwan. China absolutely dominates in steel production[2] and aluminum production[3] and no one compares to them in electronics manufacturing and assembly. They completely own the solar panel and battery markets and it seems that no one can compete with their electric cars.
While America keeps chipping away at its own soft power, institutions and manufacturing capacity China is building the juggernaut industrial capacity necessary to dominate their region.
[0] https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/08/business/us-south-korea-milit...
[1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/empty-bins-wartime-environment...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_steel_pro...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_aluminium...
its not for production but maintenance. Your link explicitly states that current law doesn't allow to produce Navy ships outside of US.
Furthermore, Koreans can't produce military ships for US simply because they can't produce such ships for themselves domestically, their newest destroyers have Korean hull, but propulsion, electronics, radars, many armaments are American: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sejong_the_Great-class_destroy...
> I'm not sure why you think that China, a nation renowned for their mass manufacturing capacity would be unable to rebuild equipment lost
I explained, it will be asymmetrical war: US will be targeting ships which cost way more than missiles cost.
Each of 4k tomahawk will target targets 10-100x cost of actual tomahawk (airplanes, power plants, docked ships).
Also, your previous report ignores old harpoon inventory, which if deployed in Taiwan will create denial zone for Chinese navy.
The point I'm trying to make with all of this is that the US simply lacks the industrial capacity to produce sufficient materiel for a protracted war with China. And not only does it currently lack the capacity, there is no indication that the political or social structures that dominate American discourse see this as a priority.
You describe this asymmetrical warfare technique of the US using missiles that have a fraction of the cost of the ships that they're targeting as if it's a unique strategy when it's the exact same thing that the Chinese are going to be doing.
The difference is that the Chinese have the ability to build many more missiles, and many more ships, and they're not nearly as exposed to cyber attacks and fifth column sabotage as the US is. So what will likely happen is they'll both survive the first round of engagements over Taiwan with the US narrowly winning and then the Chinese will rebuild more and faster and will win the next round of engagements. Or even worse the US will just let China have Taiwan because the political structure of the US is so unbelievably dysfunctional.
It's not like I want any of this to happen either. I'd love to live in a world where China was a non Authoritarian country that didn't have ambitions of dominating its neighbours but that just isn't the world we live in.
I find it dismaying that anytime I bring up my concerns about this matter online people are so quick to dismiss them with little thought. There are a lot of people who consider the US being the hegemonic military force of the plant to be a fundamental part of reality and they just can't fathom a scenario where that isn't the case.
Either way we're all going to find out in 18 months. I hope I'm wrong about this.
lol, you wrote clearly: "Here's a recent story about the outsourcing of ship production to South Korea[0]"
I am confused how else it can be read as not "about the outsourcing of ship production to South Korea"
> if it's a unique strategy when it's the exact same thing that the Chinese are going to be doing.
they won't be doing this, they are surrounded by US military bases and don't have ability to project power to US territory, and US doesn't have plans to invade China, so ships don't need to come close to coastline.
sorry, ignored rest of your speculations, because imo they grounded in nothing.
Russia was supposed to be the 2nd military power in the world, and they couldn't do in 3 years what they thought they'd do in 3 days. A much smaller country, with a much smaller army, with surplus 90s western tech (at least in the first year) held against them. They didn't get air superiority at any point. Their navy was taken out of the warzone by a country with no navy of their own! And so on, and so forth.
China being a military superpower isn't credible. It sure wants to be seen as one, but an army is more than numbers on a pps presentation. They build tons of ships but do they have trained people to man them? (recent incident with PH coast guard making the cn navy have a kiss should be a hint)
Total displacement is meaningless when you put in conscripted, untrained people, no matter how motivated and patriotic they are (and I don't doubt they'd be).
Or their rockets that were found to have subpar prop mixtures. Or.. or.. or...
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I say this as an european: the US isn't the best because they have big number goes up in military power. They do, of course, but it's much more than that. They have been actively involved in a conflict since the 2nd ww, with only a few years breaks. They have good training, practice in real world scenarios, and more importantly practice and are actively working with lots of allied forces.
Militarily, desert storm, iraq, syria and all the other coalition actions were "done" in 3 days. With air supremacy in 24 hours, usually. Watching the reports on how those operations unfolded always seems like a game of starcraft with cheating AI. You build turrets and cannons in your base, and the enemy brings stealth banshees and blink stalkers. It's not fair.
Meanwhile China has risen to become the dominant industrial superpower. So I don't even care much what China's military looks like at the moment. If they see fit to switch to a wartime economy, they will, and woe be the nation that thought it would be a good idea to pick a fight with them.
China's navy isn't the only one that has accidents.[0][1][2][3] and the kind of corruption that lead to their rockets having improperly mixed propellant also isn't unique to the Chinese navy either.[4][5]
You're absolutely right to question the quality of new recruits or conscripts in the armed forces and again China isn't the only one to have these kinds of problems.[6] After wasting trillions on losing two pointless wars the general public opinion of the US armed forces is in the dumpster and I'm skeptical that morale and enlistment will see a boost if the US goes to war with China over Taiwan.
Should a conflict with the US and China escalate you will see an unprecedented level of cyberattacks and fifth column attacks on the US due to the ubiquitous presence of Chinese technology in America and Chinese immigrants, some of whom will undoubtedly play the role of spies and saboteurs.
The US can have all the fancy stealth planes they want but it doesn't mean anything if they don't have enough missiles to arm them or the infrastructure to build missiles because they spent the last 25 years air conditioning tents in the middle east[7] and their electrical grid has just been sabotaged.
[0] https://www.foxnews.com/us/uss-harry-s-truman-ship-collision...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Fitzgerald_and_MV_ACX_Crys...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Bonhomme_Richard_(LHD-6)#J...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_John_S._McCain_and_Alnic_M...
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_Leonard_scandal
[5] https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/retired-us-navy-admiral-f...
[6] https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/09/28/new-pentagon-...
[7] https://www.npr.org/2011/06/25/137414737/among-the-costs-of-...
By what measure? All the declared objectives - "denazification" (the destruction of Ukraine's sovereignty), "demilitarization" (the destruction of Ukraine's armed forces), "protection of ethnic Russians" (now dying under Russian missile attacks), and so on - have obviously failed. The frontline has been static for years, while Russian losses are at record highs. Despite hundreds of thousands of dead and nearly a million wounded since 2022, Russia has not managed to capture even a single one of Ukraine's 22 regional capitals. Is this how victory is supposed to look like?
As noted, the result of the wargames was that China lost. That's not really the sort of result that the CCP would be looking for. They want stability. Losing a war, and a whole a bunch of young men, in a patrilineal society demographically warped by the CCPs one child policies ain't a recipe for stability.
China hasn't fought a war since '79. They probably shouldn't start learning how to fight again by trying an amphibious assault on an island that is mostly mountains, jungles, and cities. The US in '45 had more material advantages than the PRC ever will, and a lot of experience with amphibious assault, and they turned away from invading Taiwan to go to the incredibly costly invasions of the Philippines, Iwo Jima and Okinawa, because as bad as that was, it was so much less difficult.
Note further that the wargames assumes that the fight is only between the US forces in theater vs a massed Chinese attack, because all the rest of the US military is dealing with "some other crisis".
America doesn't have great supply chains for building artillery shells, because they aren't important for our strategic focus China, and they weren't needed in quantity for our last military conflict, which was evidently about spending trillions of dollars ensuring that Afghanistan could have a woman's soccer team for a few years.
Just because the US can be more thoughtfully prepared doesn't that China is some unstoppable giant.
Communism works.
China is not a communist country in practical terms and hasn't been for 30+ years.
This isn't communism; this is a 'let's get shit done and not argue' mentality. Counterpoint: India is generally considered democratic and capitalist, has a similarly-sized population and a similarly-sized landmass, but has zero kilometres of proper high-speed rail.
NIMBYs basically use property rights to their logical end. FWIW California is trying to fight this with laws that remove the rights of NIMBYs and their worst behaviors.
There are also 'green belt' laws (which ban construction on land in a ring around many cities) and there are 'environmental impact' laws (which require you to check for things like rare species) and there are 'areas of outstanding natural beauty' and national parks (where it's a lot harder to build things) and local government 'planning permission' rules (which have pretty broad powers to block development and dictate what type of development is allowed) and rules for 'nationally significant infrastructure projects' (giving national government a big say on things like airports) and also 'judicial review' for decisions that don't go your way.
And almost all of these still apply, even if the government themselves are performing the construction.
In the UK, just because you own some land, doesn't mean you're allowed to build on it.
You are falling for hype metrics on a flashy MVP and filling in claims that were never made with fanciful imagination. Pushing code straight into production works great until it doesn't.