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Section 230 changes 2) and 3). OpenAI will argue that it’s user-generated content, and it’s likely that they would win.

I don't think they would win, the law specifies a class of "information content provider" which ChatGPT clearly falls into: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/section-230-wont-protec...

See also https://hai.stanford.edu/news/law-policy-ai-update-does-sect... - Congress and Justice Gorsuch don't seem to think ChatGPT is protected by 230.