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Comment by Diog | Hacker News Reader

To be honest, for most Chinese people, the reason we haven't taken action regarding Taiwan is not because of TSMC, but rather our patience with the current will of the Taiwan people. However, this patience has its limits. Even if TSMC has better chips now, China mainland will surpass them next 10 years. You can compare the gap in chip technology between Chinese companies in 2015 and that projected for 2025 to see this trend. As for Intel, we don't really care about it.

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China mainland surpassing Taiwan in chip manufacturing seems like it would be very bad for Taiwan. At that point the Chinese have little incentive to “be gentle” with an invasion of the island. It’s in Taiwan’s interest to ensure both China and the US have a dependency on its manufacturing sector.

I think western media overstate TSMC's importance in China/Taiwan relationship. China doesn't care. It's a nice bonus. But ultimately, TSMC doesn't matter to China. Taiwan is ideological for China way before TSMC became important.

The path from 'opinion of most Chinese people' to [action taken by the Chinese military] is even more tenuous than the corresponding path in the US.

The path is in the opposite direction altogether.

Do you think an invasion of Taiwan brings risk of a new, worse status quo? I think that's primarily why China doesn't invade. If it were possible to just achieve an easy, total victory then there is no reason to wait for Taiwanese people to change their mind about joining China.

Im also confused why you say China's inaction on Taiwan isnt about TSMC its about patience, but patience is running out because China wont need TSMC in 10 years. That seems to contradict itself.

China has no reason nor any incentive to invade Taiwan. They are moving ahead with a strategy of overwhelming force and patience. In short China will simply continue to greatly expand its Navy and overall military size. It will do so until its so overwhelming that Taiwan will simply end up voting to join back with China as it will be in its own interest. China has no need to speed this process up and can simply do exactly what it is doing now.. and just watch how things will change in the next 5-10-15 years.

But why would Taiwan vote to join China if China isn't going to actually attack it? Makes no sense. China could have 10x the military of the US and park it right outside Taiwan everyday for 100 years but if they dont do anything to Taiwan it has no incentive to reunify.

The scenario where Taiwan peacefully reunifies is where they decide they want to be part of China of their own interest.

  Do you think an invasion of Taiwan brings risk of a new, worse status quo? I think that's primarily why China doesn't invade. If it were possible to just achieve an easy, total victory then there is no reason to wait for Taiwanese people to change their mind about joining China.

In my humble opinion, if China wanted to, they could win it now. China's vast resources and manpower will be overwhelming. Doesn't matter if they lose a few battles or takes a few years.

The reason China doesn't want to is because they want a peaceful reunification. They want to wait when it's so obvious that Taiwan would lose and lose quickly that Taiwan simply gives itself up.

> They want to wait when it's so obvious that Taiwan would lose and lose quickly that Taiwan simply gives itself up.

I agree they prefer a peaceful resolution but that would be in the form of Taiwan wanting to become part of China and deciding to reunify. It makes no sense to surrender without being forced to.

It makes sense if it's inevitable.

Its not inevitable if they arent willing to actually invade

> companies in 2015 and that projected for 2025 to see this trend

It's easy to grow very fast when you are starting from a very low base. Especially when you are chasing someone.

It's a bit like China's GDP per capita. If it continued growing at the same pace as between 2000 and 2020 it might have had a chance to catch up with US in a few decades or so from now. Certainly Western Europe.

Yet based on current trends they will never close the gap (then again who knows what will change in the next 10-20 years or so).

Of course demographic collapse is not that far either. US and Europe at least have immigrants propping them up.

The problem with predicting that China won't catch up on GDP per capita with the West is that the West too went through those growth phases about a century or two ago. It will take a 100-200 years, but China, and the rest of world will catch up. Just a matter of time. A long time no doubt. But it will happen.

I think you point out the most important difference between China and most of the western world, or at least the United States.

China is patient. They seem to be taking a long term, intentional approach. Their goals are long term. In other words, they’ve been planting trees for decades and those trees are now beginning to provide shade. Americans, in the other hand are more concerned with their own self interest and the next financial quarter.

> this patience has its limits

Without going into the lack of military capabilities to mount the largest amphibious invasion post-WW2 up until recently (debatable), I think you’d be hard pressed to find a group of people in the world that would be excited at the idea of being put under foreign occupation (not dissimilar to the “excitement” the Taiwanese had to be occupied by the Republic of China after WW2).

Regardless, TSMC wouldn’t survive annexation Taiwan being annexed by China in any capacity

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