My problem is that it still relies on some mathematical intuition - that large sample sizes approximate the true distribution. Similarly bad intuition (like the gambler's fallacy) could easily be coded.
I agree that formally calculating the probabilities isn't necessary if you have the right intuition. But I believe getting good intuition is the result of training on problems (and then you can learn how to formalise it - which is the easier part).
Edit: Being good at mental arithmetic isn't necessary for programming, but being good at mental arithmetic isn't necessary for working as a mathematician either.