I have not met either of them. And while I have met a few individuals who have achieved success I can honestly say I have never met anyone who I thought radiated success or was otherwise predisposed to success.
Have you never met anyone with an unusually high mix of intelligence, determination, focus, and charisma (to randomly pick a few traits)? If you have, are you more likely to bet for or against them in their chosen field?
If you haven't, that is entirely possible. Such people are, by definition, rare.
Deal with people you already know.
If the project turns out to be a dud, the past history of success of the people involved negates any arguments that it was not the right decision to fund it. No one is going to question that the people involved were not "winners". They had proven that already; that's why the project received funding: because those particular people were involved with it.
To use an oft regurgitated title: "No one ever got fired for funding a project that involved [insert so-called born winner name here]"
Just for fun: How about Andrew Mason, the guy behind Groupon. How far do you think he would have gotten by taking the YC route? Is he a "born winner"? Groupon made some investors very happy.
One might wonder why no one can tell us who the "born winners" are until after they've had some "victories".
"I have not met either of them. And while I have met a few individuals who have achieved success I can honestly say I have never met anyone who I thought radiated success or was otherwise predisposed to success."
Where in the above two statements do you contradict the idea that Benioff and Zuckerberg do give this impression in person? Notice that pg doesn't say that about everyone who is successful.