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onlyrealcuzzo

I really don't understand this massive flip flopping.

Do I have this timeline correct?

* January, announce massive $65B AI spend

* June, buy Scale AI for ~$15B, massive AI hiring spree, reportedly paying millions per year for low-level AI devs

* July, announce some of the biggest data centers ever that will cost billions and use all of Ohio's water (hyperbolic)

* Aug, freeze, it's a bubble!

Someone please tell me I've got it all wrong.

This looks like the Metaverse all over again!

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The bubble narrative is coming from the outside. More likely is that the /acquisition/ of Scale has led to an abundance of talent that is being underutilised. If you give managers the option to hire, they will. Freezing hiring while reorganising is a sane strategy regardless of how well you are or are not doing.

This. TFA says this explicitly. Alexander Wang, the former Scale CEO is to approve any new hires.

They're taking stock of internal staff + new acquisitions and how to rationalize before further steps.

Now, I think AI investments are still a bubble, but that's not why FB is freezing hiring.

> They're taking stock of internal staff + new acquisitions and how to rationalize before further steps.

Like a toddler collecting random toys in a pile and then deciding what to do with them.

Perhaps. But more like, there's a new boss who wants to understand the biz before doing any action. I've done this personally at a much smaller scale of course.

"abundance of talent" is not something I'd ascribe to Scale.

Yeah, Scale was Amazon's Mechanical Turk for the AI era.

Better strategy of course is to quietly freeze hiring. Perhaps that is not an option for a publicly traded company though.

You could just keep having interviews yet never actually hire anyone based on the talent pool is wide but shallow. It results in the same as a freeze, but without the negative connotation to the company while shifting it to the workforce

With an employer the size of Meta people would get the clue fairly quick - with inevitable public backlash.

wow there's really _zero_ sense of mutual respect in this industry isn't there. it's all just "let's make a buck by being total assholes to everyone around us".

The bubble narrative has been ongoing for a while, but as I understand it, the extremely disappointing response to GPT-5 has spilled things over.

Maybe they are poisoning the well to slow their competitors? Get the funding you need secured for the data centers and the hiring, hire everyone you need and then put out signals that there is another AI winter.

That could eventually screw them over too if they're not careful. That also ascribes cleverness to Meta's C-suit which I don't think exists.

occam's razor

The scale they operate at makes the billions, bucks.

As a board member, I'd rather see a billion-dollar bubble test than a trillion-dollar mistake.

True, and after having just leaned heavy into the "metaverse" I expect they're twice shy now.

The most amusing has to be then Zuckerburg publishes his "thoughts" about how he's betting 100% on AI... written underneath the logo "Meta".

Zuck’s metaverse will be populated by AI characters running in the $65b manhattan data center

The MAU metric must continue to go up, and no one will know if it’s human or NPC

The people "gooning" over Grok's Ani apparently can't wait to take their girlfriends there. ;-)

Zuckerberg's leadership style feels very reactionary and arrogant, defined by flailing around for the new fad and new hyped thing, scrapping everything that when the current obsession doesn't work out and then sticking head in the sand about abandoned projects and ignoring subsequent whiplash.

Remember when he pivoted the entire company to the meta-verse and it was all about avatars with no legs? And how proud they trumpeted when the avatars were "now with legs!!" but still looked so pathetic to everyone not in his bubble. Then for a while it was all about Meta glasses and he was spamming those goofy cringe glasses no one wants in all his instagram posts- seriously if you check out his insta he wears them constantly.

Then this spring/summer it was all about AI and stealing rockstar ai coders from competitors and pouring endless money into flirty chatbots for lonely seniors. Now we have some bad press from that and realizing that isn't the panacea we thought it was so we're in the the phase where this is languishing so in about 6 months we'll abandon this and roll out a new obsession that will be endlessly hyped.

Anything to distract from actually giving good stewardship and fixing the neglect and stagnation of Meta's fundamental products like facebook and insta. Wish they would just focus on increasing user functionality and enjoyment and trying to resolve the privacy issues, disinformation, ethical failures, social harm and political polarization caused by his continued poor management.

> Zuckerberg's leadership style feels very reactionary and arrogant, defined by flailing around for the new fad and new hyped thing, scrapping everything that when the current obsession doesn't work out and then sticking head in the sand about abandoned projects and ignoring subsequent whiplash.

Maybe he's like this because the first few times he tried it, it worked.

Insta threatening the empire? Buy Insta, no one really complains.

Snapchat threatening Insta? Knock off their feature and put it in Insta. Snap almost died.

The first couple times Zuckerberg threw elbows he got what he wanted and no one stopped him. That probably influenced his current mindset, maybe he thinks he's God and all tech industry trends revolve around his company.

As a DJ, I kinda want the glasses to shoot first-person video :(

> Anything to distract from actually giving good stewardship and fixing the neglect and stagnation of Meta's fundamental products like facebook and insta.

DONT TOUCH THE MONEY-MAKER(S)!!!!

By Amara's Law and Gartner Hype cycle every technological breakthrough looks like a bubble. Investors and technologist should already know that. I don't know why they're acting like altcoins in 2021.

1 breakthrough per 99 bubbles would make anyone cautious. The rule should be to assume a bubble is happening by default until proven otherwise by time.

That's actually how you create a death spiral for your company. You have to assume 'growth' and not 'death'. 'life' over 'lost'. 'flourishing' over 'withering'. That you're strong enough to survive.

Apple has seemingly done well waiting until they see a clear consumer direction (and woefully underserved tech there).

That's not playing into a bubble, that's creating a product for a market. You could also argue the Apple Vision is a misplay, or at least premature.

They've also arrogantly gone against consumer direction time and time again (PowerPC, Lightning Ports, no headphone jack, no replaceable battery, etc.)

And finally, sometimes their vision simply doesn't shake out (AirPower)

Oh, yeah — Apple Vision is a complete joke. I'm an Apple apologist to a degree though so I can rationalize all their missteps. I won't deny though they have had many though.

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