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woeirua

It's 1999 again.

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So you're saying they're basically right, but 5 or 10 years too optimistic on the timeline?

seems about right to me!

It'll be interesting to see what sort of Chewy-equivalents emerge after the pets.com-analogues collapse.

Truly, except now everyone's online and spending time online and spending cash online.

And, the .com bomb killed some companies and slowed down spending for a bit. It did not kill the internet, and now companies like Amazon(.com) are absolutely enormous.

Some people think the GenAI bomb is going to kill GenAI, I think it's just going to weed out those with too high of expenses and no way to evolve the compute to be cheaper over time.

"Some people think the GenAI bomb is going to kill GenAI,"

Sure, a very very small percentage of people who know hardly anything about GenAI might think this.

It's the opposite. The more I learn about the financial state of these companies the worse my opinion gets.

There was barely no one using the internet then let alone doing e-commerce.

It’s worth reading up on it to see what’s actually comparable.

The forward P/E of the Nasdaq 100 is pretty exemplary of how this is not the same situation at all.

https://en.macromicro.me/series/23955/nasdaq-100-pe

It is easy to spot the dot com bubble on this chart.

It’s a fair point. At the same time there’s actual software and not vapourware of the dot com boom.

1999 was triggered by fraud, there was far more demand on paper for high bandwidth applications than was justified for all the fiber layout and over-investment in Internet technologies.

The difference today is that every piece of capitalism immediately 100% utilized once it is plugged in.

Announcing to the world "AGI has been achieved internally" when that's not true seems like fraud to me.

Who did that?

Altman made this claim.

Sam Altman made a post on Reddit in 2023 implying OpenAI had achieved AGI internally. Later he “clarified” it was a joke, however there was some speculation that he didn’t understand what AGI actually meant at the time.

Tell me you don't understand why the dot com crash happened without telling me you don't understand why the dot com crash happened.

Calling the whole bubble fraud is wrong, but Enron, Worldcom and Microstrategy all blew up due to fraud in the 2000-2001 time frame.

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