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Comment by philipp-gayret | Hacker News Reader

What metric would you measure to determine whether a fully AI-based flow is better than a competent human engineer? And how much would you like to bet?

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In this context, fewer security vulnerabilities exist in a real world vibe coded application (not a demo or some sort of toy app) than one created by a subject matter expert without LLM agents.

I'd be willing to bet 6 figures that doesn't happen in the next 2 years.

The current models cannot be made to become better than humans who are good at their job. Many are not good at their job though and I think (see) we already crossed that. Certain outsourcing countries could have (not yet, but will have) millions of people without jobs as they won't be able to steer the LLMs to making anything usable as they never understood anything to begin with.

For people here on HN I agree with you; not in the next 2 years or, if no-one invents another model than the transformer based model, not for any length of time until that happens.

Agreed. I think the parent poster meant it differently, but I think self driving cars are an excellent analogy.

They've been "on the cusp" of widespread adoption for around 10 years now, but in reality they appear to have hit a local optimum and another major advance is needed in fundamental research to move them towards mainstream usage.

No clue, and $1.

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