With waters at 32C, Mediterranean tropicalization shifts into high gear
phys.org
phys.org
Virginia opossums, traditionally associated with the deep south, are now routinely spotted around Toronto, and are moving even further north. Armadillos, though still shy of the Canadian border, have crossed the Ohio River. American alligators, long stopped around Cape Hatteras, are now spotted in the tidal creeks of Virginia’s Eastern Shore. [1] Lobsters are moving north to the Canadian Maritimes from New England, and the blue crabs of Chesapeake Bay are filling the niches they're leaving behind.
It's much the same way in Europe. The European praying mantis used to be a hot-climate central Italian and Balkan insect. Now it's routinely spotted in Germany, has been found as far north as Latvia, and I found one in the usually-chilly Slovenian mountains just the other day!
Wherever you are on the map, look at the climate and ecosystem a few hundred miles south. That's likely where things are heading for you; it's a safe bet that the species that thrive there are the ones that are going to be best adapted to where you live in the second half of the 21st century.
[1] - https://defenders.org/blog/2023/12/why-we-almost-said-see-yo...
Not to say I agree (or not) this particular case would be effective, or that it's fine for man's influence to cause it, or anything. Just I don't think they showed any sign of thinking caribou would suddenly evolve like a Pokémon to have a stronger hoof or something.
After this "evolutionary bottleneck", other new random mutations / variations will occur generations later that might have no seeming immediate advantage / disadvantage to the "new normal", but at some subsequent change in the environment, the cycle of weeding out "bad" traits will happen again.
I think this is more accurate than you may have intended. It will be a single lifeboat, when the Titanic is sinking. Quite useful if you can get on it, and would guarantee survival, but for an awful small number relative to how many would like to be onboard.
There is a question of whether there will be any space, what with all the condos. But humans are less constrained, having invented the pressurized condensation-evaporation heat pump refrigeration cycle, than the natural world.
This is not the great counter example you think it is.
For those playing at home, it’s a desert-like (if not outright desert) region, and for bonus points it’s on the other end of Canada. Talk about a not “particularly good example”.
The shift will be incomplete, other species just go extinct.
They were in southern ontario in my youth in essex county ( late 80s ). And google says they were reports as far back as the 60s of scattered sightings.
There's zoos here that have them in their exotic bird sections. Always makes me smile as they are often visible even in London parks and rivers.
I don't like pesticide but the ticks mean it isn't optional.
I saw your comment and did a web search and the first hit was a US Centre for Disease Control page that says "A vaccine for Lyme disease is not currently available, the only vaccine previously marketed in the United States was discontinued by the manufacturer"
I'm more confused than ever. Can people stop vagueposting assuming everyone knows everything and just start saying what they mean?
There's a lot of misinformation and conspiracy theories about vaccines in the USA in addition to the valid questions which are equally serious. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is currently run by an individual who has superstitions about them, and is actively dismantling the professional efforts which further vaccination. Even if there was a vaccine available on the medical market in the US, because that is what we have in this country, a market for medical care, it's not clear that it would be accessible to everybody or the people who need it. The reason for this is because Americans do not have universal healthcare, and in fact, the President has recently enacted a law that cuts public healthcare for many millions of Americans, which would provide such a vaccine.
So is GP just vaguely quipping about the cancellation of development of new vaccines? "Oh wait" makes it sound like we already had a vaccine for Lyme disease that is just not being used.
edit: and now this comment I'm replying to has gone gray. I'd love to see some commentary instead of just downvotes
Tick populations have exploded recently with our new warmer climates, and now a new vaccine is slated to enter the market in the next few years.
Unfortunately however the vaccine will not protect against lone star tick bites, which can make you allergic to red meat.
In this case, what they're doing is clearly going beyond their lawn and negatively impacting you.
It's weird to suggest that "spraying poison on your neighbors" is deemed acceptable, as long as you're standing on your own property when you do it. If they were standing on their lawn throwing rocks at your apple trees, or shooting a gun at your apples, we wouldn't say they're free to do whatever they like. Heck, we don't even let people play loud music if it disturbs their neighbors.
We really need to update our mental models of harm and violence to account for modern possibilities. We should treat harm from pollution exactly as seriously as we treat harm from projectiles. Dying from cancer from your neighbors incidental pollution is just as bad as dying from a bullet from your neighbors errant gunshot.
I'm actually back in the same California neighborhood I grew up in, which has adjoining open space. In the 50 years of cumulative time my parents or I have been there, we've never needed exterminators. At most, a can of ant spray from the supermarket was sufficient to treat around a door or window in a problematic season. I'm talking about such events once every 5-10 years. Meanwhile, exterminator vans are seen in the neighborhood quite frequently. I think some folks just see a bug, absolutely freak out, and want to nuke it all from orbit.
I think it's nearly a mental illness, how people want to detach from the natural world. As if their self-image is not that of a complex animal but of some sort of sterile abstraction.
still
The top half, at least. Sorry.
Lobsters have been in the Canadian Maritimes for centuries.
With the lobsters moving north, their niche is being filled by exploding populations of blue crab...
Apropos HN, any startups targeting the (potential) future growth in the blue crab market?
I don't know when the sharks will move in, but this final sentence of the article points to a broader problem with climate change induced migrations: species don't move at the same pace. Plants move much slower than insects, and insects faster then their predators. This will create imbalances, which will lead to big problems with new diseases and pests.
Eventually things will re-calibrate, but a lot of species may go extinct and we could see a very long period of reduced biodiversity. It takes a long time to adapt.
Last night I snorkelled for 30 minutes with my son at 6pm without a wetsuit for either of us - the sea is that much warmer than average right now.
The heat is impacting the local catch of lobster and crabs, and increasing the number of new fish species here - and of jelly fish.
They are there, too. It's common to see barracudas, and big ones, in France now...
As for sharks, it depends on which ones they mean because there are sharks in the Med, but not tropical ones (yet).
The pure physics of the situation are staggering. The specific heat capacity of water is huge. The volume of ocean surface is huge. We are completely fucked. Everything you've read minimizing this or pretending we can continue with business as usual is a lie. Atmosphere SO2, enhanced rock weathering, ocean iron fertilization - it is horseshit. We had to reduce emissions 30 years ago, and simply chose not to.
The idea we can preserve our standard of living through technology is comically false. At this point, every large nation on earth would have to simultaneously cut emissions by more than half, we'd have to create a coordinated global Manhattan Project around alternative energy, and another global Manhattan Project around geoengineering (while not tipping ourselves into an ice age). It would require unprecedented leadership and cooperartion.
The US currently has the stupidest president it has ever had, surrounded by psychopaths that do not care about human suffering and act on base zero sum power calculus. The world is at war. The tech industry is greedily and actively accelerating this with crypto and AI buildout. The odds of the human species successful navigation of this extinction - at a civilization level - event is almost zero.
bondarchuk: I changed this, please delete your comment.
You will if you open like this.
The pure spirits of the situation are staggering. The cold breath of the ice demons is endless. The expanse of frozen wasteland is endless. We are completely cursed.
Everything the elders have told you about warmer lands or pretending we can continue following the old herds is a lie. Fire-keeping rituals, cave paintings for good luck, offering bones to sky spirits - it is all worthless. We had to migrate south 30 seasons ago, and the tribe leaders simply chose not to.
The idea we can preserve our way of life through better spear-making is laughably false. At this point, every large tribe on the tundra would have to simultaneously share their hunting grounds, we’d have to create a coordinated great alliance around mammoth hunting, and another great alliance around fire-keeping (while not angering the flame spirits into abandoning us). The tribe currently has the most foolish shaman it has ever had, surrounded by warriors that do not care about the starving and act on base dominance over the best hunting spots. The clans are at war. The young hunters are greedily and actively making this worse by overhunting the remaining herds and hoarding flint. The odds of our people’s successful survival of this great freezing - at a tribal level - catastrophe is almost zero.
Current Mediterranean water temps are +6C above normal, as observed over peak human civilization in the 20th century. That is 6kWh per cubic meter, in just the Mediterranean. The article briefly mentions this extending 30m down.
To give the order of magnitude of the energy involved, the Mediterranean surface area is 2,500,000,000,000 sq m. At 6kWh cu m and 18m deep, that is the energy equivalent of about 390,000 megatons. Or about 8,000 Tsar Bombas. The Mediterranean is small, about 0.7% of ocean surface area.
On the other hand, it roughly equals 1/2000 to 1/3000 of annual global energy consumption (~175 PWh / year) so about 4 hours of human energy.
The energy of those 8000 Tsar Bombas in the Mediterranean then is the same as all of human energy, electrical and fossil and otherwise, going to heating up that sea for a little over 2 years straight, or focussing all sunlight over the disc of the Earth on it for 3 hours.
(All these figures depend on who you ask as all the figures are a little bit fuzzy).
It also shows that any key to climate change revolves around adjusting the modulation of insolation and/or retention - the actual energy used by humans is, for the forseeable future, completely irrelevant except on local scales like warm water outflows into rivers and seas.
Also, again, the Mediterranian is 1/100-1/200th of global ocean surface area. And we have melted a lot of ice cap/glacier mass. The latent heat of fusion of water is very large, also.
Long term, insolation and retention are important, but short term we are reaching the limits of the "Free Ride" portion of climate change where energy sinks absorb the additional delta created by the CO2 induced greenhouse effect.
edit: the tsar bomba was to try to make it tangible, as people don't understand these orders of magnitudes well.
The CO2 PPM in the atmosphere has ~doubled since the industrial revolution.
Yes it will have drastic and catastrophic effects. We are in a very bad position.
But to say that humanity is doomed and we should throw in the towel is so fucking stupid that I had to parody it.
I took the GP comment and rewrote it from the perspective of someone in the Ice Age.
Humanity has to find solutions and we will persevere.
I think it is worth noting we tend to assume bigger negative consequences of behavior when that behavior is perceived as a moral violation [1].
A lot of people are frustrated that humanity is doing the "wrong" thing on climate change. I think that leads us to feel like some apocalypse must be imminent, almost like we are due for a karmic punishment from the desecrated and offended Earth.
It's scary that the planet is warming rapidly, especially with the consequences of that remaining largely unknown. But I think there's still plenty of hope that the 21st century will be at least relatively good for humanity.
I don't want to tell anyone how to feel. We are in a tough situation. If you are panicking and feel like the end is nigh, I think it's good to give yourself permission to calm down. We'll need calm to make it through, especially at the unfortunate times when we just have to wait it out because there's no immediate practical way to make things better.
[1] https://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article/9/1/74793/196122...
In that case, you should have no problem accepting this deal. I'll give you $10 right now. In exchange, you'll give me half of your net worth in 100 years (assume both of us will somehow be alive if civilization survives).
Humans are sub-Saharan tropical apes that somehow made it to every major landmass and climate zone in the world on stone age technology. As a species we'll be fine. Agriculture is only about 4% of the world's economic output, which gives us a lot of headroom. If it comes down it it, we triple that and probably feed the world off entirely off hydroponics in Canada and Russia.
> We had to reduce emissions 30 years ago, and simply chose not to
Greenhouse gas emissions have been rising to fuel growth that allows billions of people to achieve a quality of life that we would consider basic. Meanwhile, America's greenhouse gas emissions are below what they were 30 years ago. On a per-capita basis, they are over 25% lower.
https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/united-states
> we'd have to create a coordinated global Manhattan Project around alternative energy
Solar energy has been exponentially growing for over a decade.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics
> The US currently has the stupidest president it has ever had
Sure, but even Trump turns into TACO when the situation calls for it.
Think again, I have seen huge population of barracudas around Port-Cros and Porquerolles (islands south of France, near Toulon) for decades.