We can make arguments for informed guesses but there are simply still too many unknowns to be certain either way. People who claim to be certain are just being presumptuous.
that's the thing, I'm not certain that "computers" can replicate human level intelligence. for one that statement would have to include a rigorous definition of what a computer is and what is excluded.
no, I just don't buy the idea that human level intelligence is only achievable in human born meatbags. at this point the only evidence has been "look, birds flap their wings and man doesn't have wings, therefore man will never fly".
If this was about man flying we would be making an airplane instead of talking about how the next breakthrough will make us all into angels. LLMs are clever inventions they're just not independently clever.