I think he truly believed that scaling LLMs would lead to AGI, so he over-promised assuming the technology would catch up to the claims.
The wall is very obvious now though.
The wall is very obvious now though.
no one in the industry could have believed that
I am not in the industry but I've been following closely and I am usually skeptical, but while I erred on the side of "this is just a tool" I also wondered "what if?" more than once.
https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...
So they're getting exponentially better are doing some easy fraction of programming work. But this would be like self-driving cars getting exponentially better at driving on very safe, easy roads, with absolutely no measurement towards something like chaotic streets, or rural back-roads, or edge cases like a semi swerving or weird reflections.