The focus of the last couple of years - especially YC type startups - has been on social - which is pretty much saturated now (I laughed/cried at some of the content on that dreamitventures site that was posted yesterday).
We're in a recession now that means big opportunity for replacing established business software apps - because existing apps have grown bloated and carry huge costs - which gives a massive attack surface - a startup can do take an existing app and do the key features better, cheaper and simpler - and instantly bite in to some revenue.
New startups need to be taking on salesforce.com not trying to be the next Facebook or Twitter.
2010 will be all about revenue not unique visitors.
Perhaps you can do to SAP what Scala, Clojure et al are doing to Java: Present a more enjoyable front-end to the programmer, but target the underlying system.
Now, you might ask, none wants to be the garbage man, and their salay is crap. But it's a low barrier job to entry, and its employer doesn't have a lot of money, plus there's no specialization or the applicants don't can't receive better job offers elsewhere.
On a related note, COBOL programmers are well paid these days, but none wants to program in COBOL anymore. Kinda the same situation.
I don't know a single developer in my area who makes as much money as a garbage man does with overtime.
This surprised me because I also thought garbage men made pretty good money. We do have competing trash services here, perhaps that makes a difference.
Just a data point.