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Comment by pjmlp | Hacker News Reader

RISC-V outpacing ARM and x86 is the silicon version of The Year of Linux Desktop.

How much market share are we now on?

About 4-6% in US and other Western countries, depending on analytics source. Increases in the past year or so by a full percentage point or so. More in India, less in South America, barely any in China.

The increased visibility due to SteamOS/Proton, coverage by various prominent TechTubers, end of Windows 10 support, availability of image-based OS upgrades and Flatpak/Snap to supercede package dependencies, all seem to combine into an actual breakout year comparatively. We'll see if the trend holds or was just a one-off.

After 30 years, do the math of much years are left.

Until monopoly, or until 15-20% when companies start offering widespread Linux support for applications and peripheral management, and retail stores start selling some devices with a Linux desktop preloaded?

I'd do the math, but it really depends on whether the recent growth holds, accelerates, or slows down again. So, hard to tell.

I'm almost confident it'll slow down, or regress a little bit, historically that's what happens when it grows and then it'll equalize again around 2-3%.

The moment another or a few new AAA titles with kernel-level anti-cheat come out, people go back to Windows.

Gaming could, and probably will, be the key to the "Year of the Linux desktop" but the anti-cheat problem needs solved.

It has the entire nation of China behind it with all the incentives to make it work.

So it will become a big thing if the tensions with the US continue

It will hardly matter to me or anyone else in Europe, if we cannot get a RISC V laptop down at Media Markt, FNAC, Publico, Vorbis, Carrefour, Cool Blue,....

Five users and a pet hamster? ; - )

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