AI: Great Expectations

> I don’t think there is a single key to intelligence but rather that, unfortunately for both the philosophers and dreamers, intelligence is a vast, complex collection of simpler processes.

I don't think intelligence can be separated from the physical body, world and the interactions between them. A human brain grown in a jar would not be intelligent. Even if you could somehow communicate with it. Human abstractions that stray too far from empirical experience are nothing but hallucinations.

Nor can intelligence be separated from general intelligence. A domain specific "AI" will always have unacceptable shortcommings. For example a programming "AI" not being able to deal with the X Y problem.

TLDR: I am betting on AI being at least a century away. And not being a sure thing even in a millennium.