No, the Black Death is not a good analogy, because it killed all ages indiscriminately.

Our "plague" "kills" the young and productive - by their never being born in the first place. We are headed for something we have never seen, ever: a society dominated by old people in pure numbers terms.

The worry is that it is a design for stagnation and decay rather than greater strength. (There won't be money or people to maintain infrastructure because the elders will demand healthcare.)

I don't know what will happen and nor does anyone else really.