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Dude writes like he’s an under-appreciated genius, unfairly unrecognized in his time.

His (entirely not-unique) conclusion that the transformer architecture has plateaued is, for the moment, certainly true, but god damn it’s been a while since I’ve encountered an individual quite so lustfully engaged with his own farts.

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How about anyone pushing AI or AGI or anything of the sort? You think they aren’t high on their own supply? The author doesn’t hold a candle to Altman when it comes to sniffing their own farts… Cmon now. If anything it’s the opposite.

His "I told you so" attitude only makes sense for people who believe what they saw on Twitter from people like Sam, who thrive on hype. For most people, it was obvious that we were/are in the last part of the S curve on the LLMs' advancement and won't get us to AGI.

The leap from 3.5 to 4 was amazing, but then everyone started catching up with OpenAI, which got diminishing returns on each new model. Expecting out of nowhere that OAI would improve its pacing from o1 -> o3 improvements to AGI doesn't make sense, no matter how Sam Altman hypes.

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