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>The actual benchmark improvements are marginal at best

GPT-5 demonstrates exponential growth in task completion times:

https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...

What do you mean? A single data point cannot be exponential. What the blog post say is that the ability to solve tasks of all LLMs is exponential over time, and GPT-5 fits in that curve.

Yes, but the jump in performance from o3 is well beyond marginal while also fitting an exponential trend, which undermines the parent's claim on two counts.

Actually a single data point fits a huge range of exponential functions.

No it doesn't. If it were even linear compared to o1 -> o3, we'd be at 2.43 hours. Instead we're only at 2.29.

Exponential would be at 3.6 hours

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