> Not only do I think there will not be a winner take all, I think it's very likely that the entire thing will be commoditized
This begs the question, why then do AI companies have these insane valuations? Do investorsknow something that we don't?
This begs the question, why then do AI companies have these insane valuations? Do investorsknow something that we don't?
I just don't see how this doesn't get commoditized in the end unless hardware progress just halts. I get that a true AGI would have immeasurable value even if it's not valuable to end users. So the business model might change from charging $xxx/month for access to a chat bot to something else (maybe charging millions or billions of dollars to companies in the medical and technology sector for automated R&D). But even if one company gets AGI and then unleashes it on creating ever more advanced models, I don't see that being an advantage for the long term because the AGI will still be bottlenecked by physical hardware (the speed of a single GPU, the total number of GPUs the AGI's owner can acquire, even the number of data centers they can build). That will give the competition time to catch up and build their own AGI. So I don't see the end of AGI race being the point where the winner gets all the spoils.
And then eventually there will be AGI capable open weight models that are runnable on cheap hardware.
The only way the current state can continue is if there is always strong demand for ever increasingly intelligent models forever and always with no regard for their cost (both monetarily and environmentally). Maybe there is. Like maybe you can't build and maintain a dyson sphere (or whatever sufficiently advanced technology) with just an Einstein equivalent AGI. Maybe you need an AGI that is 1000x more intelligent than Einstein and so there is always a buyer.
Running the inference might commoditize. But the dataset required and the hardware+time+know-how isn't easy to replicate.
It's not like someone can just show up and train a competitive model without investing millions.
Increased levels of stress, reduced consumption of healthcare, fewer education opportunities, higher likelihood of being subjected to trauma, and so forth paint a picture of correlation between wealth and cognitive functionality.
People really don't like the "they're not, they just got lucky" statement and will do a lot of things to rationalize it away lol.
The comparison was clearly between the rich and the poor. We can take the 99.99th wealth percentile, where billionaires reside, and contrast that to a narrow range on the opposite side of the spectrum. But, in my opinion, the argument would still hold even if it were the top 10% vs bottom 10% (or equivalent by normalised population).
Intelligence is not a singular pre-requisite to wealth or “to be rich”.
People can specialize in being intelligent, educated, well read, and more - while still being poor.
And we know that most entrepreneurs fail, which is why VCs function the way they do.
https://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2008/02/06/correlation...
They are speculating. If they are any good, then they do it with an acceptable risk profile.
And he doesn't just think he has an edge, he thinks he has superior rationality.
You would need ~30 years of continuously beating the market to be able to claim that you are statistically likely to be better than random chance.
Does your average speculator have 30 years of experience beating the market, or were they just lucky?
You use the word statistically as if you didn't just pull "~30 years" out of nowhere with no statistics. And people become billionaires by making longshot bets on industry changes, not by playing the market while they work a 9-5.
"Does your average speculator have 30 years of experience beating the market, or were they just lucky?"
The average speculator isn't even allowed to invest in OpenAI or these other AI companies. If they bought Google stock, they'd mostly be buying into Google's other revenue streams.
You could just cut to the chase and invoke the Efficient Market Hypothesis, but that's easily rebuked here because the AI industry is not in an efficient market with information symmetry and open investing.