Does this mean AGI is cancelled? 2027 hard takeoff was just sci-fi?
It's too high in that it requires actual consciousness, which may be a very tough architectural problem at best (if functionalism is true) or an unknowable metaphysical mystery at worse (if some form of substance or property dualism is true).
And it's much too low a standard in that many, many sentient creatures are nowhere near intelligent enough to be useful assistants in the domains where we want to use AI.
The current situation is kind of like a grand prize where Zuck or similar will hand $1bn to anyone who cracks it. That's a huge incentive for people to have a go.
It's a perfect situation for Nvidia. You can see that after months of trying to squeeze out all % of marginal improvements, sama and co decided to brand this GPT-4.0.0.1 version as GPT-5. This is all happening on NVDA hardware, and they are gonna continue desperately iterating on tiny model efficiencies until all these valuation $$$ sweet sweet VC cash run out (most of it directly or indirectly going to NVDA).
There was this joke in this thread that there are the ChatGPT sommeliers that are discussing the subtle difference between the different models nowadays.
It's funny cause in the last year the models have kind of converged in almost every aspect, but the fanbase, kind of like pretentious sommeliers, is trying to convince us that the subtle 0.05% difference on some obscure benchmark is really significant and that they, the experts, can really feel the difference.
It's hilarious and sad at the same time.
To tell a made-up anecdote: A colleague told me how his professor friend was running statistical models over night because the code was extremely unoptimized and needed 6+ hours to compute. He helped streamline the code and took it down to 30 minutes, which meant the professor could run it before breakfast instead.
We are completely fine with giving a task to a Junior Dev for a couple of days and see what happens. Now we love the quick feedback of running Claude Max for a hundred bucks, but if we could run it for a buck over night? Would be quite fine for me as well.
If you buy enough GPUs to do 1000 customers’ requests in a minute, you could run 60 requests for each of these customers in an hour, or you could run a single request each for 60,000 customers in that same hour. The latter can be much cheaper per customer if people are willing to wait. (In reality it’s a big N x M scheduling problem, and there’s tons of ways to offer tiered pricing where cost and time are the main trafeoffs.)