People today still say NVIDIA is overvalued, that the stock price doesn't make sense given their revenue today.
> Tulip mania (Dutch: tulpenmanie) was a period during the Dutch Golden Age when contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels. The major acceleration started in 1634 and then dramatically collapsed in February 1637.
> At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled artisan.
It was a spot commodities futures contract bubble due to government regulation change in the futures market alongside border crisis in a neighboring country, so rational supply constriction
It ended due the bubonic plague ending the speculators so we don’t know what would have happened
I don’t think any commodities bubbles were irrational bubbles or good examples of irrational exuberance. Even the beanie babies one was rational until a seemingly permanent supply constriction was alleviated to the surprise of everyone.
So far I’ve narrowed it down to credit bubbles as being actually irrational, like the railroad bonds, and south china sea bubble, over leveraging in real estate market and derivatives with poor accounting of underlying assets
And yet tulips and beanie babies are the ones most cited
Time will tell if they're right or not. But it wouldn't be the first time it has happened.
Nvidia sells (among other things) performance leading hardware products with a locked-in software ecosystem surrounding them.
OpenAi... doesn't.
Your point is generally correct but revenue isn't 10x higher for the past 2 years, that would indicate they had about $260B in revenue this year instead of $130B.
NVIDIA annual revenue for 2025 was $130.497B, a 114.2% increase from 2024. NVIDIA annual revenue for 2024 was $60.922B, a 125.85% increase from 2023. NVIDIA annual revenue for 2023 was $26.974B, a 0.22% increase from 2022.
I wouldn't bet against these valuations with my own money -- at least to the extent you can -- but that doesn't mean it isn't a bubble.