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> it's probably even less likely we would've had just as much investment.

I doubt it. Investors aren't going to just sit on money and let it lose value to inflation.

On the other hand, you could claim non-AI companies wouldn't start a new bubble, so there'd be fewer returns to reinvest, and that might be true, but it's kind of circular.

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Correct - that's why you'd put it in Treasuries which have a positive real return for the first time in ~25 years - or, as I mentioned elsewhere - invest it somewhere else if you see a better option.

From a certain macro perspective, of no one is going to beat the Treasury, where is the Treasury going to get that money?

they’ll print it of course :)

Sadly, this is exactly what the administration unironically desires. We're arguably in a recession and Trump wants to speed it up to a depression, ransacking the US and making off with the money.

From people who want to lend them money? Or do you mean where is the Treasury going to find production?

Which is an even better argument when you look at how yields have been behaving. AI is sucking the air out of the room.

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