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Comment by Mistletoe | Hacker News Reader

It is going to be absolutely brutal when this bubble pops. I'm hoping to Freya that it happens in 2026 when I am in safer investments.

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I don't think so. Tech is transformative in a way that I can't think of any similar in the last few decades really.

Both things can be true. The tech can be transformative, and the current valuations and burn rate can be wholly unsustainable in the short term. This is exactly what happened in the dotcom era.

Whether or not this one is the same is impossible to know until after it happens. But there are credible arguments to both sides.

Same thing was sad of the Internet in 1999 when Yahoo had a market cap of $125 billion, and AOL $200 billion. Where are both companies today?

It's déjà vu all over again it seems.

Yeah, there isn't a single internet based company that's remotely worth that amount of money anywhere on earth remaining today...

Yeah, Yahoo & AOL still exist today as independent companies don't they?

Tech can be transformative but humans are bottlenecks and there are bottlenecks everywhere. That is why we don't grow at 10% rate for GDP.

This isn't a bubble.

This is a small handful of companies absolutely dominating the bleeding edge in an extremely high value technology that has value in nearly every other market. There's a lot of misses with companies implementing LLMs, but there are a LOT of companies that are using LLMs to deliver massive value that was impossible 3 years ago.

Which companies are using LLMs to deliver "massive value" outside of the companies offering LLMs?

LLMs are not, in fact providing much value to any other markets. And the amount of value they would have to provide in order to pay back current costs is staggering. It's a bubble. There is no way any of these companies is going to break even.

https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

It's going to be even more brutal than when Bitcoin popped.

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