Trump’s approval ratings is in the gutter like it was during his last term. He doesn’t reach out and make new fans, he just loses the ones he has. JD Vance is even less popular than trump, anyone who thinks their electoral success occurs even with extra gerrymandering for the midterms is probably in for a huge surprise.
Trump didn’t initiate sweeping tariffs in his last term, and they weren’t wildly unpopular. Trump is accumulating enough bad will at the moment to make it very politically easy for someone to wash away everything if they win the 2028 election.