I don't think these things are really that correlated. In fact, kind of the opposite. Hype is all talk, not actual usage.
I think this will turn out more like the internet itself. Wildly overhyped and underused when the dotcom bubble burst. But over the coming years and decades it grew steadily and healthily until it was everywhere.
Agreed re: AGI though.
Petfoods.com IPO for about $300 million. $573 million adjusted for inflation.
Chewy is at a 14 billion market cap right now.
I think comparing LLMs and the dotcom bubble is just incredibly lazy and useless thinking. If anything , all previous bubbles show is what is not going to happen again.
Curious to hear more here. What is lazy about it? My general hypothesis is that ~95% of AI companies are overvalued by an order of magnitude or more and will end up with huge investor losses. But longer term (10+ years) many will end up being correctly valued at an order of magnitude above today's levels. This aligns perfectly with your pets.com/Chewy example.
I don't, however, see LLMs as consumer products being that prevalent in the future as currently. The cost of using LLMs is kept artificially low for consumers at the moment. That is bound to hit a wall eventually, at the very least when the bubble pops. At least that seems like an obvious analysis to make at this point in time.
Regarding usage - I don't think LLMs are going away. I think LLMs are going to be what finally topples Google search. Even my less technical friends and acquaintances are frequently reaching for ChatGPT for things they would have Googled in the past.
I also think we'll see the equivalent of Google Adwords start to pop up in free consumer LLMs.
If the results of current LLM performance is acceptable, costs to achieve these same results will inevitably go down as semiconductor process improvements bring markedly reduced operational expenses (power, density, etc.)