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Comment by cosmicgadget | Hacker News Reader

Well I certainly can't argue with something that is italicized.

But I should say that any engineer familiar with the AI tech stack could have bought NVDA at any point in the last five years knowing how big their moat is. That same engineer could have sold monthly covered calls, taking 5 minutes out of every month to do so.

And before you say it, no, they wouldn't be full port NVDA.

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If it were that obvious, someone would have already picked up the $20 bill. There are many examples of companies that appeared to be just as dominant as Nvidia was on May 29, 2020 (GPT-3 release date) who went to heck shortly thereafter.

Wouldn't selling covered calls on Nvidia have been like selling a goose that lays golden eggs?

The ones that assign, yes. But nvidia pays like one cent per share in quarterly dividends so the real golden eggs are the call premiums. Otherwise you're just trying to buy the goose low and sell it high.

Jesus, don't quit your day job to become a trader is all I'm gonna say.

Can you at least provide specificity to match your derision?

It's trivial to say in hindsight "if you had just bought XYZ in January you would have 80% gains by now!". Yet this is pure confirmation bias. Moreover, surveys routinely show that amateur day traders do not consistently beat a global stock index in a statistically significant manner.

Extrapolating from past data with N=1 to demonstrate that "any tech person can outperform the index" shows a crass lack of mathematical reasoning, which in my opinion demonstrates why you're unsuited to professional trading.

Okay since you're just tossing insults I'll just say that you don't need hindsight to have known that Nvidia is selling shovels in an AI gold rush.

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