Analyze it this way: Are LLMs enabling something that was impossible before? My answer would be No.
Whatever I'm asking of the LLM, I'd have figured it out from googling and RTFMing anyway, and probably have done a better job at it. And guess what, after letting the LLM do it, I probably still need to google and RTFM anyway.
You might say "it's enabling the impossible because you can now do things in less time", to which I would say, I don't really think you can do it in less time. It's more like cruise control where it takes the same time to get to your destination but you just need to expend less mental effort.
Other elephants in the room:
- where is the missing explosion of (non-AI) software startups that should've been enabled by LLM dev efficiency improvements?
- why is adoption among big tech SWEs near zero despite intense push from management? You'd think, of all people, you wouldn't have to ask them twice.
The emperor has no clothes.